Buhari was said to have told a close associate that, any Nigerian who want Dollars should go to Jonathan but all Nigerians who want out country to be better for everybody should vote for Buhari.
Now that the election is finally here, who will people vote for? See FULL details below...
Nigerians will file out to vote in the presidential elections that could transform the political landscape for decades. In this final installment of The Nation's comprehensive reports on the race, they highlight the latest realities and project likely outcomes in the 36 states and the FCT:
Less than 60 million of Nigeria’s estimated 170 million population will choose the nation’s next president. One week to the day the first ballots would be cast, INEC put the total number of registered voters at 68,833,476. Out of this only 56,431,255 permanent voter cards (PVCs) had been collected. This represents 82% of total cards and is a high figure when compared with previous elections.
Before the February 7 postponement the momentum was clearly on the side of the presidential candidate of the APC, General Muhammadu Buhari.
Founder of OPC and a loyalist of President Goodluck Jonathan has confessed that Buhari's momentum was a key factor behind the six-week shift pushed through by the Presidency.
The extension was supposed to enable Jonathan and the PDP regain the initiative. In that period the president, governors and campaign team virtually relocated to the South West – courting traditional rulers and others with a shower of Dollars. The Gani Adams-led OPC took to Lagos streets brandishing guns and vandalizing APC billboards. First Lady Dame Patience Jonathan barnstormed throughout the country rallying women for her husband.
The extension was supposed to enable Jonathan and the PDP regain the initiative. In that period the president, governors and campaign team virtually relocated to the South West – courting traditional rulers and others with a shower of Dollars. The Gani Adams-led OPC took to Lagos streets brandishing guns and vandalizing APC billboards. First Lady Dame Patience Jonathan barnstormed throughout the country rallying women for her husband.
Critically, the armed forces in collaboration with the multinational force from Cameroon, Chad and Niger chased Boko Haram insurgents out of most towns they had occupied in the North-East.
But not even the successful military campaign has altered the dynamics of the race in the North and across the country. The fundamentals remain largely the same for Jonathan and his challenger, Buhari.
The emerging electoral map shows a collapse of the voter base that swept Jonathan to power in 2011. At the election, the incumbent took the three Southern zones and North-Central. But in this 2015, Jonathan is being restricted to the South-South, South-East and pockets of North-Central.
Buhari on the other hand won in the North-West and North-East in 2011 but lost down South. This year his support base has dramatically improved. In addition to retaining his grip across in the two zones he took four years ago, this time around he’s projected to sweep North-Central and South-West. This will give him four of the country’s six geopolitical zones – a clear pathway to power.
A status report on the presidential contest from zone to zone and state to state follows:
NORTH-WEST
The PDP controls the state governments in Kebbi, Jigawa, Katsina and Kaduna. This notwithstanding, the sentiments across the zone is largely pro-Buhari. His personal popularity is reinforced by the regional clamour for power-shift to the North. In 2011, the general running under the relatively untested Congress for Progressive Change (CPC) swept the zone. Now he’s running on a far stronger platform. Crucially, the zone with the biggest vote haul in the country is Buhari’s home turf.
In 2011 Buhari garnered 6,453,437 votes as against Jonathan’s 3,395,724 votes in the North-West zone.
KEBBI
The tide is much more in favour of APC because many stalwarts or match-winners of PDP have defected to the opposition. They include leaders like ex-FCT Minister, Adamu Aliero, Sen. Muhammadu Magoro, Bala Na’Allah, Suleuiman Mohammed Argungu and even APC governorship candidate, Sen. Atiku Bagudu.
The situation has degenerated to the extent that angry citizens of the state now heckle Governor Saidu Dakingari at rallies. To win election, most candidates of PDP for National Assembly and State House of Assembly elections have refused to identify openly with Jonathan.
In 2011, Buhari running as the CPC’s candidate won 501,453 votes to defeat Jonathan who polled 369,198 votes in the state. So far 1.4 million PVCs out of the state’s registered voter base of 1.5 million have been distributed.
Verdict: APC wins.
SOKOTO
Governor Aliyu Wamakko and the APC are gaining more ground in the state. Known as “Alu Sai Alu”, Wamakko strongest points are ability to relate freely with the poor at the grassroots; ability to deliver on his promises; and a performance which has overshadowed the records of his predecessors, especially ex-Governor Attahiru Bafarawa. The internal crisis in PDP has buoyed the governor and APC’s chances of coasting to success. As at press time, thousands of supporters of Deputy Governor Mukhtar Shagari had chosen to work for APC rather than the party’s governorship candidate, Ambassador Abdallah Wali.
Out of the 1,659,044 Permanent Voter cards (PVCs) received by the Sokoto State INEC, 1,571,000 have so far been distributed. This might be indicative of heightened voter interest this time around. In 2011 voter turnout was a poor 40.1%. In that election Buhari prevailed over Jonathan by 540,769 to 309,057 votes.
Verdict: APC victory.
KADUNA
The disastrous campaign outing of the PDP presidential campaign train to the state indicated that the party is unpopular in the state. With some empty seats at the stadium and the shout of Sai Buhari, President Jonathan and members of the PDP presidential Campaign team were rattled. Findings revealed that APC and Buhari are in control of the northern part of Kaduna like Zaria and Lere. The opposition has always controlled the Central Senatorial District too especially Birnin Gwari, Kaduna North, Kaduna South and Igabi.
Disunity is the bane of PDP in the state with 80 per cent of supporters and loyalists of ex-Governor Ahmed Makarfi defecting to APC.
The spate of killings in Southern Kaduna, the removal of the former GMD of NNPC, and the sack of a former chairman of SURE-P, Lt. Gen. Martin Luther Agwai (rtd) might make it difficult for PDP to retain its grip on the state.
The anger in Southern Kaduna against the PDP is much and it will be difficult for Jonathan to assuage it. To add to the burden of PDP, the choice of the APC Deputy Governorship candidate, Arc. Barnabas Bala Bantex has made the ruling party in the state to run helter-skelter. Bantex is loved by the people of Southern Kaduna and he is said to be a rallying point for them
Unfortunately for the President, he is being careful in directly intervening in the party’s affairs in Kaduna State because it is the domain of his deputy. The race appears headed towards victory for APC unless Vice-President Namadi Sambo overhauls his party’s campaign machinery.
In 2011, running on a very new platform, Buhari beat the PDP’s Jonathan here with 1,334,244 to 1,190, 179 votes. As many as 3,145,037 out of Kaduna’s 3,414,250 registered voters have picked up their PVCs.
Verdict: APC to win.
ZAMFARA
Ex-Governor Sani Yerima and his political son, Abdulaziz Yari, have continued to enjoy more grassroots support in the state. They are having an easy ride because the politics in the state has followed the same pattern since 1999. The State Publicity Secretary of APC, Sani Ahmed Gwamna, said the party has no opposition in the state. “Everybody knows that since the beginning of the Fourth Republic in 1999, PDP has never won an election to form government in Zamfara,” he said. The aloofness of the Minister of Defence, Gen. Aliyu Gusau, to the presidential campaign has foreclosed any good outing for PDP.
PVC collection rate here is one of the highest in the country. Out of 1,495,717 registered voters, 1,435,452 PVCs have collected their cards – amounting to a 95.97 per cent. In 2011, Buhari won the state with 624,515 to Jonathan’s 238,980 votes.
Verdict: APC victory.
JIGAWA
In spite of the ranting of Governor Sule Lamido against APC leaders, the opposition will win the presidential poll in the state. One of the reasons Lamido is begrudging Buhari is the fact that the latter controls large following in Jigawa State. Even under ANPP and CPC platforms, Buhari had always won Jigawa hands down in 2003, 2007 and 2011. Since January, the governor’s comments have given advantage more to Buhari than Jonathan. In January, Lamido told the News Agency of Nigeria (NAN) that “I agreed like every other person that Buhari is an incorruptible, honest, clean and patriotic Nigerian. My concern has always been defectors who our party, PDP, had made ministers, governors, speakers and members of the National Assembly and left us after benefiting so much.” For the presidential race, Buhari is the man to beat in Jigawa. But the governor will cling to any straw to retain the state for PDP in other strands of election.
Out of 1,831,276 registered voters in the state, 1,757,658 had picked their PVCs giving Jigawa one of the highest collection rates at 95.98 per cent. Four years ago Buhari took the state with 663,994 votes to Jonathan’s 419,252.
Verdict: APC to win.
KATSINA
This remains an APC enclave because it is the home of Buhari. During the week, many PDP members tucked their membership cards into big bags and burnt them. The elite forces are also overwhelmingly against PDP. These are prominent Katsina sons seeking power shift, APC strong leaders, those who defected from PDP to APC, and the loyalists of ex-President Umaru Yar’Adua working for Buhari. Though the PDP is trying to survive, the people of the state will vote for APC because they want the presidency which they lost in 2010, due to the death of ex-President Umaru Yar’Adua, to return to the state. The removal of the Acting Executive Chairman of the Federal Inland Revenue Service (FIRS), Mallam Kabir Mashi, at the prompting of some PDP stalwarts, is a minus for Jonathan in the state because it will lead to protest votes against PDP in some parts of the state.
A total of 2,569,453 PVCs are now in the hands of eligible voters in Katsina State out of 2,840,654 on the register. Four years ago Buhari won his home state handsomely by 1,163,919 votes to Jonathan’s 428, 392 votes.
Verdict: APC to win.
KANO
This is still a tough terrain for Jonathan and the PDP. For almost a week, Vice President Namadi Sambo was in Kano to woo opinion leaders and voters. He got more than he bargained for during an interactive session with academic staff who gave the Jonathan administration a low mark.
The Kwankwassiya political dynasty has successfully managed its succession plan which has given APC an advantage to consolidate. The commissioning of some projects in Kano State in recent weeks has added more pep to the score sheet of Governor Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso. The fresh call by the Emir of Kano, Sanusi Lamido Sanusi to the NNPC account for the controversial $20billion oil funds might seal the fate of PDP in the state. But the Minister of Education, Mallam Ibrahim Shekarau is trying his best to salvage the PDP although he can only hope to secure the required 25 per cent of the total votes cast for the President.
Kano has a huge registered voter base at 4,975,701. But of this number only 3.4 million have picked up their PVCs. Buhari took an impressive 1,624,543 votes to defeat Jonathan who only managed 440,666 votes in the state in 2011.
Verdict: APC to win.
NORTH-CENTRAL
With the exception of Kwara and Nasarawa, PDP controls the state governments in the zones four other states – Niger, Benue, Plateau and Kogi. What on paper ordinarily would have been a PDP stronghold has , again, been neutralized by sentiments across the North favouring power-shift to the region. This favours Buhari. However, the results may ultimately be determined by a complex mix of ethnic and religious politics that is never far from the surface in this zone.
NIGER
Despite spirited moves to deny his association with the opposition and disparage Buhari at the PDP presidential campaign rally, Governor Babangida Aliyu knows the game is up for his party in the state. Even the manner in which Aliyu was panting and making unsolicited and irrelevant remarks suggested he was facing some electoral challenges. PDP’s fortunes further slipped down with the defection of the Deputy Governor, Musa Ibeto to APC. This is in addition to the loss of Niger East Senatorial District by-election seat to APC’s David Umar. The National Assembly Election Tribunal declared Umar as the validly elected senator instead of Nuhu Zagbayi of PDP. The refusal of the governor to handover to his deputy while going for lesser Hajj has boosted APC’s chances. Buhari is set to reenact his 2011 victory in the state. That year he won the state convincingly by polling 652, 574 to Jonathan’s 321, 429 votes. Of the state’s 2, 014, 317 registered voters, 1, 682, 058 have collected PVCs.
Verdict: APC to win.
NASARAWA
The combined forces of Governor Tanko Al-Makura and a former Secretary of the Board of Trustees of the PDP, ex-Governor Abdullahi Adamu have upstaged the PDP and APGA in the state. Though the APGA governorship candidate, ex-Minister Labaran Maku is whipping up religious sentiments, the outcome of the marathon campaign tours of APC has shown that Al-Makura remains the candidate to beat. His selling point is what a source described as his “humility.” If there was any hope left for Maku, it was shattered by the Director-General of PDP Campaign Organization, Dr. Ahmadu Ali, who described the former Minister as an ingrate. The exit of Maku from PDP has altered the game strongly in favour for APC. Up till now, the PDP campaign in the state has no bite as if the party has resigned to fate.
Four years ago PDP won the presidential contest here with 408, 997 votes to Buhari’s 278, 390 votes. PVC collection here has been relatively high. Out of 1242667 registered voters, 1, 048, 053 have picked up their cards.
Verdict: APC to win.
KWARA
Kwarans are still celebrating the tumultuous crowd which welcomed APC’s presidential campaign train to the state. The crowd doubled a similar one for PDP. Rather than allowing campaign to move on smoothly, the PDP has resorted to violence with the attack on some APC leaders and members including the campaign convoy of the wife of APC presidential candidate, Mrs. Aishat Buhari.
The presidency is covertly trying to woo the gamesmaster of Kwara politics, Dr. Bukola Saraki, to its side but with its recourse to media blackmail of APC leaders, the battle line is drawn. The only survival straw of PDP now is to reach out to the church and make it to believe that the general election is a religious war. The APC is trying to discountenance the propaganda.
Buhari was defeated here by the PDP machine in 2011. He polled a paltry 83, 603 votes to Jonathan’s 268, 243 votes. So far out of the 1, 142,267 registered voters in state, only 884, 996 persons have collected PVCs. Even if half that number votes it would be an improvement on the abysmal 36% voter turnout recorded at the last election.
Verdict: APC to win.
KOGI
A major headache of PDP in the state is the poor performance of Governor Idris Wada which has been attributed to inherited debts from the administration of ex-Governor Ibrahim Idris. The relapsing health challenge of the governor has slowed him down in gaining electoral advantage for the president. The non-payment of minimum wage to primary school teachers’ has pitched PDP against the masses. This is also creating electoral threat to the ruling party’s success. The PDP is sticking to old jokers of ethnic, cultural and religious prejudices.
The fact that there is no governorship poll in Kogi State has made the battle very close between the PDP and APC. Also, the defection of major stakeholders in Kogi East and Kogi Central has given APC a slight edge above PDP. The stakeholders from Kogi East are Alh. Linko Ocheje (the strong man of Ankpa politics); Mallam Sani Egwu; Gen. Salifu Atawodi; Chief John Odawn (the long-serving state PDP chairman); Sen. Alex Kadiri; Sen. Yahaya Ugbane; Hon. Ikani; Hon. Gowon (IGN); Hon. Ismail Ina Hussein; Hon. Adejoh Akowe; Hon. Musa Idoko; and Hon. Aduku Ojodale.
Those who left PDP for APC in Kogi Central are Sen. Mohammed Ohiare; Sen. Salihu Ohize; ex-Speaker Abdullahi Bello; Chief Michael Ozovehe; Alh. Idris Ozi Shuaibu; Hon. Sule Kokori; Hon. Kabir Ajanah; and Hon. Bashir Sani Omolori. In Kogi West, some PDP chieftains who have defected to APC and other parties are ex-Yagba West LGA chairman, Hon. Tunji Aro; former Chairman, Yagba East, Hon. Abdulkadir Jimoh Salahudeen(a.k.a Erukutu); former Chairman, Mopamuro LGA, Hon. Pedro Obadofin; Hon. Salifu Akawu Sule; ex-Chairman, Kotonkarfe LGA, Hon. Shaba Mohammed; and Commodore Foluso Daniels.
Those trying to salvage PDP in Kogi State now are Sen. Smart Adeyemi (Kogi West) and the Minister of Justice and Attorney-General of the Federation, Mr. Mohammed Bello Adoke (SAN), who can no longer afford to remain in the background as a technocrat. The rescue mission of the Minister to Kogi Central Senatorial District for the PDP has made the game difficult for APC in the area. Adoke had offset the SSCE fees of all final year secondary school students in the five local government areas in the district.
Last weekend, we projected Kogi as being too close to call but current realities indicate the state may be leaning towards Buhari for the presidential contest. Sources say there is anger in Kogi West/ Okunland over Jonathan’s unfulfilled promises. Also, critical PDP stakeholders who have refused to defect openly to other parties are said to be giving surreptitious support to the opposition.
In 2011 Jonathan won here by 399, 816 votes to Buhari’s 132, 201 votes. A total of 926, 013 PVCs have been distributed out of the registered voter tally of 1, 350, 883.
Verdict: APC to take Kogi.
BENUE
More than any period in his political career, Governor Gabriel Suswam of Benue State is fighting for his own survival such that he finds it difficult to take the party’s governorship candidate, Terhemen Tarzor along. Suswam is in a cul-de-sac because of inability to pay workers minimum wage; owing of workers six months’ salaries; prolonged strikes in the state which led to closure of schools for eight months and a sharp drop in popularity rating.
The defection of ex-Minister Samuel Ortom and Chief Barnabas Gemade to APC is still haunting the PDP. This development has forced Suswam to embark on aggressive dusk- to- dawn campaign. With a high prospect of winning two out of the three senatorial districts in the state, APC is giving PDP sleepless nights. The game remains 50-50 in the state because of ethnic and religious factors which Suswam may latch on. Otherwise in a free and fair atmosphere, it is APC’s.
Jonathan won by a wide margin here in 2011. He polled 694, 776 votes to Buhari’s 109, 680 votes. So far 1, 607, 800 PVCs have been collected. Total number of registered voters in the state is 2, 015, 452.
Verdict: Battleground
PLATEAU
Unknown to many Nigerians, the race is tighter in Plateau State this time around between PDP and APC because of the manner in which the PDP primaries were rigged in favour of some candidates and the demand for power shift. The people of Southern and Central Plateau have rejected the imposition of another governorship candidate, Sen. Gyang Pwajok from Plateau North on them after eight-year tenure of Governor David Jang. Out of the 17 local governments in the state, Plateau North has six, South (six) and Central is left with five. Motivated by the urge for power shift, the people of Southern and Central Plateau have opted for APC leaving only Plateau North in PDP. The APC governorship candidate, Hon. Simon Lalong is from Southern Plateau and his deputy is the immediate past Vice Chancellor of the University of Jos, Prof. Sonny Tyodem from Plateau Central. On its part, the PDP picked its candidate, Sen. Gyang Pwajok from Plateau North and deputy, U.G. Gomwalk from Kanke in Plateau Central.
More PDP leaders and members have also moved over to APC forcing most political office holders from Plateau State, like the Minister of Water Resources, Mrs. Sarah Ochekpe, to relocate home to salvage the situation. Out of the 16 governorship aspirants in PDP, 13 defected to APC, two remain neutral and Pwajok is on his own. Though the defectors have succeeded in shaking PDP, the ruling party in the state has a narrow edge over APC due to the population advantage of Plateau North. Governor Jang has sustained religious and tribal politicking to checkmate the growing influence of APC in the state.
Buhari suffered a crushing defeat at the hands of Jonathan in this state four years ago. He polled a mere 356, 551 votes compared to the president’s 1, 029, 865 votes.
Verdict: Battleground
NORTH-EAST
The critical factor in the North-East is the insurgency and how the Jonathan administration has handled it. As at February 7 when the six-week postponement was announced, security chiefs told the National Council of State (NCS) that 14 local government areas in the zone were occupied by insurgents.
Over the last four weeks insurgents have been flushed out of most of those locations. President Jonathan spoke midweek of the military recapturing Gwoza where the insurgents had set up the headquarters of their caliphate.
The president and PDP were clearly hoping that the military victory would translate into an electoral boost for them. That hasn’t happened. Instead angry citizens of this zone are saying if it was possible to defeat the Boko Haram fighters in a few weeks, why was the insurgency left to fester for over five years – leading to death of over 15,000 people and making hundreds of thousands Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs).
ADAMAWA
The centre no longer holds in Adamawa PDP to the extent that President Jonathan made an emergency shuttle to the state last Saturday. He got more than he bargained for when stakeholders only promised to vote for him during the presidential poll. Overwhelmed by the challenge at hand, Jonathan paid a nocturnal visit to ex-Vice President Atiku Abubakar for help. Instead, Abubakar shunned his invitation to return to PDP.
The party is locked in a cold war following the failure of its recent reconciliation over the choice of ex-EFCC chairman, Mallam Nuhu Ribadu as the party’s governorship candidate. Ribadu’s olive branch is yet to be accepted by stakeholders who are embittered about the conduct of the party’s primaries in Abuja. The PDP’s headache is how to heal all wounds and defeat the PDM candidate, Dr. Ahmed Mohammed Modibbo and the APC candidate, Sen. Jibrilla Bindo. It is certainly an open race in Adamawa where Buhari’s wife hails from. Adamawa is 50-50 for the presidential election.
Four years ago Jonathan had the edge – winning the state by 508, 314 to 344, 526 votes. PVC collection rate is quite high. Out of the 1, 559, 012 registered voters 1, 381, 571 have picked up their cards.
Verdict: Battleground
TARABA
Despite his bombshell against some ex-militants, a former Minister of Defence, Gen. Theophilus Danjuma, holds the ace for PDP victory in Taraba State. But APC and SDP are giving PDP some headache in the state. When the Acting Governor, Alhaji Abubakar Danladi, kicked off his senatorial campaign in Karim Lamido; he was greeted with chants of “Ba mu yi”. The yeoman’s job of Sen. Aishatu Alhassan (Sai Mama) has improved the prospects of APC. The religious factor is being exploited by PDP to secure its reign in the state. One thing is certain: Buhari will secure the mandatory 25 per cent of the total votes cast.
Taraba was another comfortable win for Jonathan in 2011. He beat Buhari by 451, 354 to 257, 986 votes. This state at over 94% has one of the highest PVC collection rates in the country. Out of the 1, 340, 652 registered voters 1 270, 889 have collected cards.
Verdict: PDP to win
GOMBE
The state is prone to political violence because the ruling PDP is feeling the competitive heat of the opposition. The structure of ex-Governor Danjuma Goje, which produced the governor in 2011, is formidable to the extent that attempts were made to set Goje up on phantom security charges. Last weekend we projected the state as being too close call. However, such is the intensity of Buhari’s popularity across the North that just as he did in 2011, he would win again in Gombe. That year he prevailed against Jonathan by 459, 898 to 290, 347 votes.
So far, a total of 1, 069, 635 out of 1, 120, 023 registered voters have received PVCs – a collection rate of over 95%.
Verdict: APC to win
BAUCHI
The war between Governor Isa Yuguda and the FCT Minister, Bala Mohammed, since the stoning of the presidential convoy in Bauchi has further polarised PDP in the state. The leaders are now working at cross-purposes in a political terrain that is not entirely under the control of PDP. At a point, the governor was accused of producing both the PDP and APC governorship candidates in a deft political move to win either way during the general election. PDP National Chairman, Alhaji Adamu Muazu, has been accused of not working hard enough for the victory of Jonathan. In fact, Mu’azu on Thursday was quick to tell party members that “…I do not see a landslide coming.” The state has always been a political stronghold of Buhari in the last 12 years.
In 2011 he won a landslide victory against Jonathan here by taking 1, 315, 209 votes as against the president’s 258, 404 votes. Out of the state’s 2, 054, 125 registered voters, 1, 778, 380 have picked up cards.
Verdict: APC to win comfortably.
BORNO
Despite insurgency, the massive turn-out at APC presidential campaign rally in Maiduguri has destabilized PDP and Jonathan camp. The PDP’s woes in the state worsened on Wednesday when a Federal High Court in Abuja declared Gambo Lawan as the authentic governorship flag-bearer of the party in Borno State. Justice Ahmed Mohammed ordered the PDP to substitute the name of Alhaji Mohammed Imam with Lawan. The judgment was a setback for ex-Governor Modu Ali Sheriff whose candidate Imam was. A party source said: “We are in disarray; we were devastated by the judgment. Supporters of Imam will rather work for APC than Lawan.”
Though the state is still one of those classified as facing security threats at the last Council of State meeting, it remains APC territory. The campaign so far has revealed that the PDP is depending on federal might to capitalize on the insurgency in the state to manipulate the electoral process. The APC relies on the integrity and achievements of Governor Kashim Shettima, despite all odds, to retain the control of the state.
Buhari won here convincingly in 2011 – taking 909, 763 to Jonathan’s 207, 075 votes. At that election voter turnout was just under 50%. It remains to be seen what the impact of the insurgency would be on turnout. So far, of the 1, 934, 079 registered voters 1, 407, 777 PVCs have been distributed.
Verdict: APC to win.
YOBE
With two out of the three senatorial districts in its kitty, Yobe remains firmly hooked to APC because the state had pitched tent with the opposition since 1999. Ex-Governor Bukar Ibrahim, the political godfather of the state, has been the pivot. With the achievements of Governor Ibrahim Gaidam, retaining the state is easier for APC. The PDP, which initially had challenges over the choice of its governorship candidate, Adamu Maina Waziri, is coming up stronger but is unlikely to displace APC. The decision of Major Hamzat Al-Mustapha, a former CSO to the late Head of State, Gen. Sani Abacha, to lie low has diminished the electoral fortunes of PDP in the state. The permutations that Al-Mustapha will be an electoral asset have failed for PDP.
Again, Buhari won here last time with 337, 537 votes to Jonathan’s 117, 128 votes. Voter turnout was 45%. PVC collection stands at 824, 401 out of 1, 099, 970 on the voters register.
Verdict: APC wins.
FCT
The PDP controls the government machinery in the six area councils and has the biggest war chest for campaign in the territory. The subtle wooing and recognition of traditional rulers has also made the party to penetrate the grassroots. The Vice Presidential Candidate of APC, Prof. Yemi Osinbajo went on campaign tour of the six councils about a week ago. Last weekend we projected a PDP victory. However, that doesn’t take into consideration that a lot of Northerners live in the territory and the regional sentiment towards power-shift could change the direction of the race – making it unpredictable.
Last time, Jonathan won here by 253, 444 to 131, 576 votes. Out of the territory’s 881, 472 registered voters, only 569, 109 have received PVCs. In 2011 voter turnout was a lowly 42.2%.
Verdict: Battleground
SOUTH-EAST
Four years ago Jonathan enjoyed a landslide victory in this zone over Buhari. The latter’s fortunes have improved here given that he’s running on the stronger APC whereas in 2011 CPC was virtually nonexistent. That notwithstanding, the South-East’s embrace of Jonathan and PDP remains fairly strong. Religious politics and familial concerns of the First Family to the zone could also prove important.
ABIA
In Abia State, President Jonathan and PDP are very hopeful of recording a landslide victory. This is because of his unshaken relationship with Governor Theodore Orji, who controls the party machinery. Aside the hope of utilising Orji’s incumbency factor, First Lady Patience Jonathan’s mother hails from the state and this has been used to mobilize support for Jonathan. Also, the PDP has managed to dictate the pace in Abia State politics over the years mainly because of Orji’s style of governance. Until recently, he has succeeded in rendering opposition parties redundant in the state.
Even now that some of opposition parties are gathering steam, most of them like All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA) and the PPA are campaigning for Jonathan.
Our investigation confirms that while governorship and other legislative elections would be a close contest between the ruling PDP and the opposition, Jonathan is likely to win the presidential election here but not with 98 percent as was the case in 2011. In fact, most respondents are optimistic that APC’s candidate, Buhari may get 25 percent votes here unlike 0.31 percent he got in 2011.
That year, Jonathan received a lopsided 1, 175, 984 to Buhari’s microscopic 3, 743 votes. PVC collection is fairly high here. Out of 1, 396, 162 registered voters, 1, 177, 520 have received cards.
Verdict: PDP to win.
ANAMBRA
Anambra State is an All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA)-led state but for the presidency, the state has consistently voted for PDP. In 2011, Jonathan, the PDP flagbearer got 98.96 percent of all the votes cast at the presidential contest.
If not for recent political developments, one would have predicted the same trend, since APGA, as it did in 2011, has no presidential candidate but has pledged to queue behind Jonathan. But unlike what happened in 2011, APC’s Buhari will get reasonable votes from the state.
As Ekwueme, a political father in Anambra State, pointed out, all is no longer at ease with PDP. The elder statesman said “Anambra and Igbo vote can no longer be taken for granted. This is even so as Senator Chris Ngige-led state APC has taken the state by storm thereby popularizing the opposition party there. There is no doubt that APC is very popular in Anambra State and so Buhari seems poised to take advantage of it. Buhari’s major setback in this state and most of the other South-East states is PDP’s continuous campaign that the former Head of State hates Ndigbo and singled out Igbo leaders like Ekwueme, Sam Mbakwe and Jim Nwobodo for imprisonment.
Anambra was another crushing defeat for Buhari in 2011. He polled 4, 223 votes to Jonathan’s 1, 145, 169 votes. A total of 1, 658, 967 PVCs have also been distributed out of the registered voter population of 1, 963, 173.
Verdict: Jonathan
EBONYI
Ebonyi State is a traditional PDP state which gave Jonathan 95.57 percent of its votes in 2011. However, some observers say it has become a major battle ground in this election.
The ripple effects from the crisis in PDP, which culminated in the political coup that dislodged control of the party from Governor Martin Elechi is poised to change the state’s political game.
It seems the only things that may guarantee Jonathan success here are Senator Pius Anyim Pius’ determination to market Jonathan’s ability to retain Elechi’s support for the presidency.
Left to the supporters of the embattled governor, who have already moved over to Labour Party, both Jonathan and his party would have been humbled in this state. Many of them would have gladly released protest votes in favour of Buhari. This would have been most feasible because of the increasing strength of the rival APC in the state, where Dr. Ogbonnaya Onu’s influence has come to play.
In 2011 Buhari received a ludicrous 1, 025 votes as against 480, 592 polled by Jonathan. About 848, 392 PVCs have been collected out the registered voter population of 1, 074, 273.
Verdict: PDP to win.
ENUGU
Following alleged reconciliation of the Senator Ike Ekweremadu-led faction of PDP in Enugu and that of Governor Sullivan Chime, Jonathan’s supporters are optimistic he will easily win in the state, where he got 98.54 percent votes against Buhari’s 0.36 percent in 2011.
While it may not be out of place for PDP to be optimistic in Enugu, insiders in the state’s politics said many interests have been hurt in the pre-election politicking. This includes but not limited to the bitterness of the Senator Ayogu Eze’s camp of the PDP.
Added to this is the dynamic campaign of Okey Ezea-led APC, which is poised to serve as a boost to Buhari’s political fortunes in the state. With its Catholic dominated population, there is also the fear in the PDP camp that Father Mbaka’s recent sermon may sway precious votes to Buhari’s box.
Enugu was another massive win for Jonathan in 2011. He received 802, 144 votes as against a miserable 3, 753 for Buhari. So far 1, 223, 606 people have received PVCs out of 1, 429, 221 registered voters.
Verdict: PDP to win.
IMO
Currently, Imo State is an APC state where Governor Rochas Okorocha’s influence is a major boost for General Buhari.
But The Nation learnt that the PDP’s campaign has been tailored to diminish Buhari’s influence as he was lavishly described as an Igbo hater, who singled out Igbo leaders like Chief Sam Onunaka Mbakwe, for jail. The former governor of old Imo State is so adored in the state that this singular campaign may swing the presidency to Jonathan in the state.
So, while APC seems certain to win the governorship election, the presidency may be too close to call or slightly in favour of Jonathan.
The projections for 2015 are a dramatic turnaround for Buhari who received a mere 7, 591 votes in 2011 compared to a massive 1, 381, 357 votes for Jonathan. In the South-East Imo has one of the highest PVC collection rates at 94%. So far 1, 707, 449 people out of the 1, 803, 030 registered voters have picked up their cards.
Verdict: Battleground
SOUTH-SOUTH
This zone is not only Jonathan’s home ground; it used to be a PDP fortress. That has been breached with APC governments in Rivers and Edo. Jonathan is expected to do well on the back of regional sentiment to back their ‘brother.’ However, a complex interplay of local ethnic politics in Delta, Akwa Ibom and Rivers could throw up some interesting results here.
AKWA IBOM
As far as Governor Godswill Akpabio is concerned, President Jonathan can go to bed regarding the state. He has good reasons to be that optimistic. The state organised a boisterous and well-attended campaign event when the President’s team came calling.
The state has also been a stronghold of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), winning every electoral office since 1999. Having been elevated contentiously to becoming the highest earning state from the federal allocation, Akwa Ibom indigenes will consider voting for Jonathan a favour returned.
But it would be too simplistic to dismiss Buhari’s chances just yet. The APC has been making serious incursions in Akwa Ibom since Obong Umana Umana emerged its governorship candidate. The tricky politics of power-shift and zoning in the state has disrupted all political calculations.
Oron are to be found in five of the state’s 31 local government areas. They are angry with Akpabio for reneging on a promise to zone the governorship to them. There is also the Abak 5 in Ikot Ekpene senatorial district. They are angry with the governor for trying to rob them of a senatorial seat. Their number could prove decisive. Umana is extremely popular in Uyo, the state capital, and other Ibibio-speaking areas. Added to this is the fact that key political players like former Governor Victor Attah and former Minister Don Etiebet have openly broken with PDP by attending Umana’s APC rally and endorsing him.
Factors like South-South solidarity with Jonathan and the incumbent governor’s heavy war chest play in the president’s favour. Last weekend we suggested that PDP will win Akwa Ibom in its historic pattern. But the state’s complex ethnic politics suggest tomorrow’s polls would not be business as usual. We now project the state to be too close to call.
Buhari lost heavily to Jonathan here in 2011 – managing just 5, 348 votes to Jonathan 1, 165, 629 votes. PVC collection is quite high at over 94%. So far 1, 587, 566 out of 1, 680, 759 registered voters have received cards.
Verdict: Battleground
CROSS RIVER
The state should be an easy pie for Jonathan. He is considered a son of the soil and a friend of the state. The proximity of his native Bayelsa state will be an added incentive for voters to pick him in the state.
The PDP has been dominant at all levels in the state since the return of democratic rule. An implosion during the party’s governorship primary that produced Senator Ben Ayade has been well-managed to the amazement of the opposition.
Jonathan, seen as a fellow Christian and South-South brother, will certainly garner massive votes in the state. It is hard to tell how much weight the APC can pull to win votes for Buhari, a Muslim northern. It is even harder to contemplate him winning as much as 25% in the state. Given the ongoing scenario, Jonathan will carry the state without much ado.
Buhari recorded a dismal 4, 002 votes here last time compared to 709, 383 votes for Jonathan. So far 963, 929 out of 1, 175, 623 have received PVCs.
Verdict: PDP to win.
RIVERS
If there is a state that can define this presidential election, it would be no other than Rivers. The two leading candidates have gladiators here, sparing no effort or design to make them win. On the side of APC is Governor Rotimi Amaechi, who is Director General of the Muhammadu Buhari’s campaign.
Amaechi, a dogged fighter, is a political veteran. He knows Rivers politics like the palms of his hands. He’s a two-time governor and an ex-Speaker. It has taken nothing more than sheer willpower and doggedness to fight a President and then defect to the opposition party without as much as scratch. For every weapon fired at him, Amaechi returns the salvo with ten deadlier canisters.
The APC has gained much ground since the governor made it his new abode. The governorship candidate, Dakuku Peterside, has a followership capable of intimidating even the bravest opposition.
The party’s chapter has been giving the PDP a run for its money, insisting that Jonathan cannot win the state. APC’s chairman in Rivers, Davies Ikanya, said Jonathan had committed 25 grievous sins for which the state will never vote for him.
The sins, according to him, include neglect, stalling of some projects envisaged to develop the state, lack of implementation of some projects, violence and corruption among others.
The party has been mobilising against Jonathan and pushing Buhari’s candidature with remarkable results, going by attendance at rallies and campaigns.
But the PDP is no pushover yet in Rivers. Not when its governorship candidate, Nyesom Wike, is still around. Wike has fought Amaechi to a standstill, using federal might and presidential connections. He also attracts crowds.
Besides, First Lady, Dame Patience Jonathan, is also from the state. She has been mobilising for her husband among her people. But many are not happy with her role in the standoff in the state. There may protest with votes against Jonathan at the poll.
Intriguingly, the unscripted defection to the PDP of Deputy Governor Tele Ikuru has thrown the cat amongst the pigeons. It remains to be seen whether this will tip the balance in either direction.
Being a cosmopolitan state with an incumbent governor rooting for Buhari, the APC presidential candidate may carry the state. Jonathan, on his own, will also make serious impact among voters based on ethnic and religious considerations as well as the influence of his wife.
Rivers was a massive votes mine for Jonathan in 2011 as he received a huge 1, 817, 762 votes as against just 13, 182 for Buhari. Of the state’s 2, 537, 590 registered voters, 2, 127, 837 have collected PVCs.
Verdict: Battleground
EDO
That the 2011 presidential election in Edo State was a stroll in the park for President Jonathan is stating the obvious. The president garnered 542, 173 votes as against 17, 795 votes for Buhari.
The president’s victory in 2011 was largely due to the ‘home boy’ factor, coupled with the maximum support offered him by the state governor, Adams Oshiomhole, who mobilised the people in support of Jonathan.
But next Saturday’s election in the state is likely to be a different ball game, as the governor has turned his back against the President. In the last couple of weeks, he has embarked on a vigorous campaign for the APC presidential candidate and other candidates of the party across the nooks and crannies of the state.
While the Edo governor has intensified campaign for Buhari, no one seems to be doing same for the President, as the acclaimed leader of Edo PDP, Chief Anthony Anenih, appears to be spending more time in Abuja thus delegating the task of campaigning for the president to less influential party chieftains.
During his campaign stumps across the state, the governor’s campaign message that the PDP-led federal government has neglected the state in terms of infrastructural projects has resonated well with the people, many of whom have keyed into the change mantra being propagated by the APC.
The Jonathan campaign has been counting on South-South solidarity to prevail in Edo. Bearing this in mind we projected the state last weekend as being too close to call. But given current realities on the ground we now expect Buhari to take Edo.
The PDP had a good outing here last time taking 542, 173 votes as against 17, 795 for CPC’s Buhari. PVC collection rate is modest with 1, 218, 734 have received cards out of the state’s 1, 779, 738 registered voters.
Verdict: APC wins
DELTA
In spite of recording a landslide victory in 2011, President Jonathan and the PDP are not taking anything for granted.
And this is understandable. The ruling party is facing some tough challenges ranging from gradual resurgence of the APC in addition to inter-ethnic suspicion and rivalry in the state.
Indeed, if there is one factor that could impact negatively on the President’s electoral chances in the state, it is the alleged disenchantment of some ethnic groups including Itsekiri and the Urhobos against the Ijaws, the President’s ethnic group.
For the Itsekiris, their grouses are legion. First, is the controversy over the site of the $16 billion Delta Gas City project at Ogidigben in Warri South local government area with the Ijaws claiming ownership of the land said to belong to the Itsekiri.
The groundbreaking of the project suffered several postponements until a few weeks ago when the President visited Warri and reportedly appeased the Itsekiri with his commitment to the commencement of the project.
But not a few however believe that the President’s fence mending was borne not out of genuine love for the Itsekiri, but to win their votes in the presidential election.
There are also others who are not happy with how the state governor, Dr. Emmanuel Uduaghan, was “shabbily treated” by the PDP in the run-up to the party’s senatorial and governorship primaries early this year.
The governor’s desire to have his preferred candidate emerge as the governorship candidate not only failed, he was also compelled to step down for an Ijaw man, Senator James Manager, who is running for another term to represent Delta South in the National Assembly.
Among the Urhobos too, there is a sharp division within the influential Urhobo Progressive Union (UPU), the umbrella body of all Urhobos. Some of its leading lights are reportedly drumming support for Jonathan, while others have allegedly pitched their tent with Buhari.
As the largest ethnic group in Delta State, the Urhobos have the numbers to determine where the pendulum of victory would swing in the election.
In 2011 the contest was one-sided with Jonathan taking 1, 378, 851 votes as against 8, 960 for Buhari. About 1, 921, 627 PVCs have been distributed out of a registered voter base of 2, 275, 264.
Verdict: Slim victory for Jonathan
BAYELSA
Four years ago, the opposition was practically non-existent in Bayelsa, the home state of the President. The result of the 2011 presidential election proved
But the situation is different today, thanks to the defection of notable politicians to the APC, including the immediate former governor of the state, Timipre Sylvia, a former senator, Fred Oboro, former Security Adviser to Sylva, Chief Richard Kpodo, former Youth Leader of PDP in the South-South, Mr. Godwin Sidi and a former Chairman of Southern Ijaw Local Government, Timipa Orunemigha.
Since his parting ways with the President and PDP, Sylvia has slowly but steadily positioned the APC as a viable opposition, a development the Presidency is not comfortable with.
Sources say the former governor, who is also contesting for the Senate on March 28 against media entrepreneur, Ben Bruce, is determined to prove a point that he remains a factor in Bayelsa politics.
But more worrisome for the President’s camp, is the threat by some loyalists of the incumbent governor, Seriake Dickson, not to vote for the President over what they perceive as the overbearing influence of his wife, Dame Patience Jonathan, who has been at loggerheads with the governor.
The homeboy factor in spite of the incursion of the APC, analysts argue, would come handy for the President when the chips are down. Four years ago his kinsmen almost gave him 100% of the available votes. He received 504, 811 as against 691 for Buhari. So far 546, 372 PVCs have been collected. The state has 610, 373 registered voters.
Verdict: Safe bet for Jonathan
SOUTH-WEST
By moving its campaign apparatus to the South-West in the closing days of the contest, Jonathan and PDP obviously agree with those who say this zone would decide the election. The president won convincingly here in 2011. But four years later it is a different ballgame. Jonathan’s robust attempt to break APC’s stranglehold on the zone using monetary inducement, intimidation of the electorate by OPC members, as well as hate documentaries against opposition leaders like Bola Tinubu have backfired.
The major problem for the ruling party is the sense that the South-West has been grossly marginalized by the Jonathan administration as it has no representation in the nation’s top 50 political positions. Conversely, the zone now seems the chance of one of its own becoming Vice President as very distinct possibility.
In Lagos, PDP has tried to turn settlers against indigenes – especially believing that Jonathan’s popularity in the South-East could be transferred to the Igbos in Lagos. But this discounts the presence of other huge settler population like Hausa and other Northerners whose preference is Buhari.
Crucially, Lagos in which four million PVCs were distributed is controlled by APC. The party has proven time and time that in this sprawling megacity it has an unparalleled ability to get out the vote.
OSUN
In Osun, which is firmly under the control of the APC, Jonathan will not have a good showing on election day. All through the electioneering campaign, the President found it difficult to get listening ears. His visits to the state have receive no appreciable attention from the people considering the mammoth crowd that thronged the Osogbo City Sports Stadium to receive Buhari and his team twice when he visited the state in continuation of his presidential campaign.
This will be no surprise in Osun where, in spite of his good showing in the region in 2011, the President still lost to the Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN) candidate by a wide margin. With Governor Rauf Aregbesola still in charge and the PDP declining in status by the day, Buhari is positioned to win massively in the state.
Aregbesola’s convincing victory during last year’s governorship election and the rancour that saw PDP losing two former governors of the state, Isiaka Adeleke and Olagunsoye Oyinlola and former Speaker Olubunmi Etteh, to the APC in quick succession will also work against Jonathan.
Osun was unique in 2011 as neither Jonathan nor Buhari won here. Instead the defunct Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN) candidate, Nuhu Ribadu, prevailed with 299, 711 votes. However, Jonathan still outperformed Buhari taking 188, 409 votes as against the CPC candidate’s 6, 997.
Verdict: APC to win.
EKITI
During the June 21, 2014 governorship election held in Ekiti State, the APC failed to retain the state. The victory of Ayo Fayose was no doubt a surprise to many observers.
However, that governorship election and tomorrow’s presidential poll are two totally different things. The local factors that led to the defeat of former Gov. Kayode Fayemi are not expected to count this time around. Interestingly, in the little time he’s been in the saddle Fayose has managed to alienate many in the state. But being an unrepentant Jonathan supporter the governor will do all that is necessary to ensure PDP carries the day.
APC is not likely to give up without a good fight. The fact that it was in charge of the state for four years barely months back, is also an advantage for Buhari. In addition, the reconciliation of Michael Opeyemi Bamidele, gubernatorial candidate of the LP at the last election with the APC leadership will give PDP more troubles.
Crucially, like in many parts of the South-West there is a strong desire for change at the center. That is a boost for Buhari. This alters our projection last weekend which gave Ekiti to Jonathan. We now project the state as being too close to call.
It was a woeful outing for Buhari as he only managed 2, 689 votes here compared with 135, 009 for Jonathan in 2011. So far, 511, 790 PVCs have been collected out of 732, 021 registered voters.
Verdict: Battleground
ONDO
The political drama that saw the massive defection of major political actors from one political party to the other, which started in 2014 and continued into the new year, climaxed yesterday with Deputy Governor, Alhaji Ali Olanusi crossing from PDP to APC.
The unresolved intra party crisis that bedeviled the PDP in the state following the entrance of Governor Olusegun Mimiko into the party has given the APC a serious edge in the contest for presidential votes.
In quick succession, the Mimiko camp lost the likes of Hon. Gani Daodu representing Akoko North West and East Federal Constituency at the National Assembly, Hon. Gbenga Edema representing Ilaje Constituency II and Hon. Folasade Olasehinde representing Ose Constituency to the APC. More defections were to follow as Mimiko battled old members of his new party for control of party structure.
Although the coming of Mimko into Jonathan’s party initially boosted the chances of the president in the state considering the fact that Ondo was before now a Labour Party (LP) controlled state, his unending face-off with leaders of the party made nonsense of the political gains of his defection.
This argument is premised on the calculation that it was a united PDP, adequately supported by the then ruling Labour Party that gave Jonathan 85.66% of the total votes counted in the state in 2011. With the now ruling PDP torn to shreds and the LP no longer in Mimiko’s kitty, coupled with a fast growing opposition APC in the same state, pundits say Jonathan may not be able to win the oil rich state on March 28.
Jonathan and Buhari will fight hard for votes in Ondo State. Proximity to the President’s native Bayelsa State as well as the large presence of Arogbo-Ijaws in the oil producing area of the state, will give the president a good showing in the southern part of the state.
But with Buhari running on the platform of the APC this time and the general feeling of marginalisation among the Yorubas, his performance in the mainland and other parts of the state will receive a serious boost from what it was in 2011.
The defection of the Deputy Governor is a psychological boost for APC. But Mimiko like Fayose are diehard Jonathan loyalists and would do anything to ensure their candidate prevails. Last weekend we projected a narrow Buhari win but we now believe the state is too close to call.
Ondo gave Jonathan 387, 376 votes in 2011 and a miserly 11, 890 to Buhari. As of today 1, 110, 844 PVCs have been collected. The state has 1, 524, 655 registered voters.
Verdict: Battleground
LAGOS
Although President Jonathan in recent weeks made tremendous efforts at swaying the electorate in Lagos in his favour, not much was achieved by his political maneuvers. If anything, the President and his team gave the people of the state ample opportunities to critically examine why they should vote for any of the two leading candidates.
Before now, Lagosians were disappointed that the President merely coming to Lagos when he launched his campaign, to attack personalities and not to discuss issues. The people, it appeared would have loved the President to tell them about his achievements in office and how he intends to improve on the achievements.
Not even the recent attempt by the PDP to discredit APC’s national leader, Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu, appeared to have succeeded as polls continue to give the state to Gen. Buhari and his party. The near non-existing influence of Afenifere chieftains in the state is also a factor that made nonsense of the President’s effort to play the ethnic card in the state.
Thus, contrary to the posturing of people like Bode George, the most popular position is that Buhari will outshine Jonathan at the polls in Lagos State. APC’s control of political structures in the state is massive – from state to local council levels. This gives it an unparalleled ability to turn out the votes on polling day.
PDP’s attempt to play the ethnic card appealing to certain non-indigenous ethnic groups has been neutralised by APC getting its governors and leaders, such as Kwankwaso, Na’Abba and Buhari to speak directly with other ethnic groups whose numbers are equally large in the state.
Another terrible miscalculation was the pro-Jonathan rally held in Lagos by the Gani Adams-led Oodua Peoples Congress (OPC) and other supporters of the president. The event turned into an orgy of violence with motorists being harassed by gun-totting OPC members and billboards of APC members being vandalised. Public reactions to the outing have been decidedly negative for Jonathan and PDP.
By the time all of the above are placed side by side with the unending crises that have rocked the PDP in the state for years, Buhari is in pole position to prevail on March 28.
In 2011 almost one million votes separated Jonathan and Buhari. The former polled 1, 281, 688 as against the latter’s modest 189, 983 votes. PVC collection has been anaemic – with only 3, 799, 274 distributed out of a registered voter pool of 5.8 million.
Verdict: APC to win.
OGUN
An array of PDP chieftains, including controversial Buruji Kashamu, former party boss, Joju Fadairo and Doyin Okupe, amongst others, are working round the clock to deliver the votes in the state to Jonathan. They are no doubt determined to beat the APC to second place. But Buruji has credibility problem and Okupe is a political liability.
Matching the popularity of the ruling party and the wide acceptance of Governor Ibikunle Amosun is a huge task for Jonathan’s men. Consequently, Buhari’s visit to Abeokuta few days back was a huge success that saw the people of the Gateway State trooping out to see him.
An earlier visit by Jonathan also saw a mammoth crowd but the frenzy that greeted the APC rally gave indication of where the votes may go. Amosun’s track record of achievements, especially in the area of urban renewal, which has seen the massive construction of roads and bridges will be an added advantage for his party.
Also, the seeming ‘siddon look’ attitude of people like former Governor Gbenga Daniel, former Speaker Dimeji Bankole, Jubril Martins Kuye and a host of other aggrieved PDP leaders may work against Jonathan in the state unless something urgent is done.
The indisputable political place of ex-President Olusegun Obasanjo and his unhidden opposition to Jonathan’s aspiration, which peaked with his card-tearing exit from the party few weeks back, will also work in favor of Buhari and his party.
In 2011 Buhari lost Ogun – home of his then running mate, Pastor Tunde Bakare – to Jonathan by 309, 177 to 17, 654 votes. PVC distribution has been problematic in the state in the run-up to this year’s polls. So far only 1, 125, 657 out of 1, 829, 534 registered voters have received cards.
Verdict: APC to win.
OYO
In Oyo state, the tattered state of Jonathan’s party may aid Buhari’s victory. APC also controls the state government. Pundits also say that aside, Oyo is a core Yoruba state where the feeling of marginalisation is deep-rooted.
Although the likes of Jumoke Akinjide, Jonathan’s minister from the state, and Senator Teslim Folarin, gubernatorial candidate, are of the opinion that the people will vote for the Presdient, indications that this may not be so are numerous. The daily defection of party leaders from the PDP, which started with the exit of former Governor Adebayo Alao-Akala remains an issue. Although it is believed that Ladoja and Alao-Akala are working for Jonathan’s candidacy unofficially.
With APC determined to hold on to the state, enjoying the support of all the first class monarchs including Alaafin of Oyo, Soun of Ogbomosho, Olubadan of Ibadan etc, Jonathan may find it difficult getting votes in Oyo.
Jonathan took Oyo comfortably four years ago – raking in 484, 758 votes to outpace Buhari who could only manage 92, 396 votes. PVC collection stands at 1, 639, 967 out of 2, 415, 566 registered voters.
Verdict: APC wins.
CONCLUSION:
But not even the successful military campaign has altered the dynamics of the race in the North and across the country. The fundamentals remain largely the same for Jonathan and his challenger, Buhari.
The emerging electoral map shows a collapse of the voter base that swept Jonathan to power in 2011. At the election, the incumbent took the three Southern zones and North-Central. But in this 2015, Jonathan is being restricted to the South-South, South-East and pockets of North-Central.
Buhari on the other hand won in the North-West and North-East in 2011 but lost down South. This year his support base has dramatically improved. In addition to retaining his grip across in the two zones he took four years ago, this time around he’s projected to sweep North-Central and South-West. This will give him four of the country’s six geopolitical zones – a clear pathway to power.
A status report on the presidential contest from zone to zone and state to state follows:
NORTH-WEST
The PDP controls the state governments in Kebbi, Jigawa, Katsina and Kaduna. This notwithstanding, the sentiments across the zone is largely pro-Buhari. His personal popularity is reinforced by the regional clamour for power-shift to the North. In 2011, the general running under the relatively untested Congress for Progressive Change (CPC) swept the zone. Now he’s running on a far stronger platform. Crucially, the zone with the biggest vote haul in the country is Buhari’s home turf.
In 2011 Buhari garnered 6,453,437 votes as against Jonathan’s 3,395,724 votes in the North-West zone.
KEBBI
The tide is much more in favour of APC because many stalwarts or match-winners of PDP have defected to the opposition. They include leaders like ex-FCT Minister, Adamu Aliero, Sen. Muhammadu Magoro, Bala Na’Allah, Suleuiman Mohammed Argungu and even APC governorship candidate, Sen. Atiku Bagudu.
The situation has degenerated to the extent that angry citizens of the state now heckle Governor Saidu Dakingari at rallies. To win election, most candidates of PDP for National Assembly and State House of Assembly elections have refused to identify openly with Jonathan.
In 2011, Buhari running as the CPC’s candidate won 501,453 votes to defeat Jonathan who polled 369,198 votes in the state. So far 1.4 million PVCs out of the state’s registered voter base of 1.5 million have been distributed.
Verdict: APC wins.
SOKOTO
Governor Aliyu Wamakko and the APC are gaining more ground in the state. Known as “Alu Sai Alu”, Wamakko strongest points are ability to relate freely with the poor at the grassroots; ability to deliver on his promises; and a performance which has overshadowed the records of his predecessors, especially ex-Governor Attahiru Bafarawa. The internal crisis in PDP has buoyed the governor and APC’s chances of coasting to success. As at press time, thousands of supporters of Deputy Governor Mukhtar Shagari had chosen to work for APC rather than the party’s governorship candidate, Ambassador Abdallah Wali.
Out of the 1,659,044 Permanent Voter cards (PVCs) received by the Sokoto State INEC, 1,571,000 have so far been distributed. This might be indicative of heightened voter interest this time around. In 2011 voter turnout was a poor 40.1%. In that election Buhari prevailed over Jonathan by 540,769 to 309,057 votes.
Verdict: APC victory.
KADUNA
The disastrous campaign outing of the PDP presidential campaign train to the state indicated that the party is unpopular in the state. With some empty seats at the stadium and the shout of Sai Buhari, President Jonathan and members of the PDP presidential Campaign team were rattled. Findings revealed that APC and Buhari are in control of the northern part of Kaduna like Zaria and Lere. The opposition has always controlled the Central Senatorial District too especially Birnin Gwari, Kaduna North, Kaduna South and Igabi.
Disunity is the bane of PDP in the state with 80 per cent of supporters and loyalists of ex-Governor Ahmed Makarfi defecting to APC.
The spate of killings in Southern Kaduna, the removal of the former GMD of NNPC, and the sack of a former chairman of SURE-P, Lt. Gen. Martin Luther Agwai (rtd) might make it difficult for PDP to retain its grip on the state.
The anger in Southern Kaduna against the PDP is much and it will be difficult for Jonathan to assuage it. To add to the burden of PDP, the choice of the APC Deputy Governorship candidate, Arc. Barnabas Bala Bantex has made the ruling party in the state to run helter-skelter. Bantex is loved by the people of Southern Kaduna and he is said to be a rallying point for them
Unfortunately for the President, he is being careful in directly intervening in the party’s affairs in Kaduna State because it is the domain of his deputy. The race appears headed towards victory for APC unless Vice-President Namadi Sambo overhauls his party’s campaign machinery.
In 2011, running on a very new platform, Buhari beat the PDP’s Jonathan here with 1,334,244 to 1,190, 179 votes. As many as 3,145,037 out of Kaduna’s 3,414,250 registered voters have picked up their PVCs.
Verdict: APC to win.
ZAMFARA
Ex-Governor Sani Yerima and his political son, Abdulaziz Yari, have continued to enjoy more grassroots support in the state. They are having an easy ride because the politics in the state has followed the same pattern since 1999. The State Publicity Secretary of APC, Sani Ahmed Gwamna, said the party has no opposition in the state. “Everybody knows that since the beginning of the Fourth Republic in 1999, PDP has never won an election to form government in Zamfara,” he said. The aloofness of the Minister of Defence, Gen. Aliyu Gusau, to the presidential campaign has foreclosed any good outing for PDP.
PVC collection rate here is one of the highest in the country. Out of 1,495,717 registered voters, 1,435,452 PVCs have collected their cards – amounting to a 95.97 per cent. In 2011, Buhari won the state with 624,515 to Jonathan’s 238,980 votes.
Verdict: APC victory.
JIGAWA
In spite of the ranting of Governor Sule Lamido against APC leaders, the opposition will win the presidential poll in the state. One of the reasons Lamido is begrudging Buhari is the fact that the latter controls large following in Jigawa State. Even under ANPP and CPC platforms, Buhari had always won Jigawa hands down in 2003, 2007 and 2011. Since January, the governor’s comments have given advantage more to Buhari than Jonathan. In January, Lamido told the News Agency of Nigeria (NAN) that “I agreed like every other person that Buhari is an incorruptible, honest, clean and patriotic Nigerian. My concern has always been defectors who our party, PDP, had made ministers, governors, speakers and members of the National Assembly and left us after benefiting so much.” For the presidential race, Buhari is the man to beat in Jigawa. But the governor will cling to any straw to retain the state for PDP in other strands of election.
Out of 1,831,276 registered voters in the state, 1,757,658 had picked their PVCs giving Jigawa one of the highest collection rates at 95.98 per cent. Four years ago Buhari took the state with 663,994 votes to Jonathan’s 419,252.
Verdict: APC to win.
KATSINA
This remains an APC enclave because it is the home of Buhari. During the week, many PDP members tucked their membership cards into big bags and burnt them. The elite forces are also overwhelmingly against PDP. These are prominent Katsina sons seeking power shift, APC strong leaders, those who defected from PDP to APC, and the loyalists of ex-President Umaru Yar’Adua working for Buhari. Though the PDP is trying to survive, the people of the state will vote for APC because they want the presidency which they lost in 2010, due to the death of ex-President Umaru Yar’Adua, to return to the state. The removal of the Acting Executive Chairman of the Federal Inland Revenue Service (FIRS), Mallam Kabir Mashi, at the prompting of some PDP stalwarts, is a minus for Jonathan in the state because it will lead to protest votes against PDP in some parts of the state.
A total of 2,569,453 PVCs are now in the hands of eligible voters in Katsina State out of 2,840,654 on the register. Four years ago Buhari won his home state handsomely by 1,163,919 votes to Jonathan’s 428, 392 votes.
Verdict: APC to win.
KANO
This is still a tough terrain for Jonathan and the PDP. For almost a week, Vice President Namadi Sambo was in Kano to woo opinion leaders and voters. He got more than he bargained for during an interactive session with academic staff who gave the Jonathan administration a low mark.
The Kwankwassiya political dynasty has successfully managed its succession plan which has given APC an advantage to consolidate. The commissioning of some projects in Kano State in recent weeks has added more pep to the score sheet of Governor Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso. The fresh call by the Emir of Kano, Sanusi Lamido Sanusi to the NNPC account for the controversial $20billion oil funds might seal the fate of PDP in the state. But the Minister of Education, Mallam Ibrahim Shekarau is trying his best to salvage the PDP although he can only hope to secure the required 25 per cent of the total votes cast for the President.
Kano has a huge registered voter base at 4,975,701. But of this number only 3.4 million have picked up their PVCs. Buhari took an impressive 1,624,543 votes to defeat Jonathan who only managed 440,666 votes in the state in 2011.
Verdict: APC to win.
NORTH-CENTRAL
With the exception of Kwara and Nasarawa, PDP controls the state governments in the zones four other states – Niger, Benue, Plateau and Kogi. What on paper ordinarily would have been a PDP stronghold has , again, been neutralized by sentiments across the North favouring power-shift to the region. This favours Buhari. However, the results may ultimately be determined by a complex mix of ethnic and religious politics that is never far from the surface in this zone.
NIGER
Despite spirited moves to deny his association with the opposition and disparage Buhari at the PDP presidential campaign rally, Governor Babangida Aliyu knows the game is up for his party in the state. Even the manner in which Aliyu was panting and making unsolicited and irrelevant remarks suggested he was facing some electoral challenges. PDP’s fortunes further slipped down with the defection of the Deputy Governor, Musa Ibeto to APC. This is in addition to the loss of Niger East Senatorial District by-election seat to APC’s David Umar. The National Assembly Election Tribunal declared Umar as the validly elected senator instead of Nuhu Zagbayi of PDP. The refusal of the governor to handover to his deputy while going for lesser Hajj has boosted APC’s chances. Buhari is set to reenact his 2011 victory in the state. That year he won the state convincingly by polling 652, 574 to Jonathan’s 321, 429 votes. Of the state’s 2, 014, 317 registered voters, 1, 682, 058 have collected PVCs.
Verdict: APC to win.
NASARAWA
The combined forces of Governor Tanko Al-Makura and a former Secretary of the Board of Trustees of the PDP, ex-Governor Abdullahi Adamu have upstaged the PDP and APGA in the state. Though the APGA governorship candidate, ex-Minister Labaran Maku is whipping up religious sentiments, the outcome of the marathon campaign tours of APC has shown that Al-Makura remains the candidate to beat. His selling point is what a source described as his “humility.” If there was any hope left for Maku, it was shattered by the Director-General of PDP Campaign Organization, Dr. Ahmadu Ali, who described the former Minister as an ingrate. The exit of Maku from PDP has altered the game strongly in favour for APC. Up till now, the PDP campaign in the state has no bite as if the party has resigned to fate.
Four years ago PDP won the presidential contest here with 408, 997 votes to Buhari’s 278, 390 votes. PVC collection here has been relatively high. Out of 1242667 registered voters, 1, 048, 053 have picked up their cards.
Verdict: APC to win.
KWARA
Kwarans are still celebrating the tumultuous crowd which welcomed APC’s presidential campaign train to the state. The crowd doubled a similar one for PDP. Rather than allowing campaign to move on smoothly, the PDP has resorted to violence with the attack on some APC leaders and members including the campaign convoy of the wife of APC presidential candidate, Mrs. Aishat Buhari.
The presidency is covertly trying to woo the gamesmaster of Kwara politics, Dr. Bukola Saraki, to its side but with its recourse to media blackmail of APC leaders, the battle line is drawn. The only survival straw of PDP now is to reach out to the church and make it to believe that the general election is a religious war. The APC is trying to discountenance the propaganda.
Buhari was defeated here by the PDP machine in 2011. He polled a paltry 83, 603 votes to Jonathan’s 268, 243 votes. So far out of the 1, 142,267 registered voters in state, only 884, 996 persons have collected PVCs. Even if half that number votes it would be an improvement on the abysmal 36% voter turnout recorded at the last election.
Verdict: APC to win.
KOGI
A major headache of PDP in the state is the poor performance of Governor Idris Wada which has been attributed to inherited debts from the administration of ex-Governor Ibrahim Idris. The relapsing health challenge of the governor has slowed him down in gaining electoral advantage for the president. The non-payment of minimum wage to primary school teachers’ has pitched PDP against the masses. This is also creating electoral threat to the ruling party’s success. The PDP is sticking to old jokers of ethnic, cultural and religious prejudices.
The fact that there is no governorship poll in Kogi State has made the battle very close between the PDP and APC. Also, the defection of major stakeholders in Kogi East and Kogi Central has given APC a slight edge above PDP. The stakeholders from Kogi East are Alh. Linko Ocheje (the strong man of Ankpa politics); Mallam Sani Egwu; Gen. Salifu Atawodi; Chief John Odawn (the long-serving state PDP chairman); Sen. Alex Kadiri; Sen. Yahaya Ugbane; Hon. Ikani; Hon. Gowon (IGN); Hon. Ismail Ina Hussein; Hon. Adejoh Akowe; Hon. Musa Idoko; and Hon. Aduku Ojodale.
Those who left PDP for APC in Kogi Central are Sen. Mohammed Ohiare; Sen. Salihu Ohize; ex-Speaker Abdullahi Bello; Chief Michael Ozovehe; Alh. Idris Ozi Shuaibu; Hon. Sule Kokori; Hon. Kabir Ajanah; and Hon. Bashir Sani Omolori. In Kogi West, some PDP chieftains who have defected to APC and other parties are ex-Yagba West LGA chairman, Hon. Tunji Aro; former Chairman, Yagba East, Hon. Abdulkadir Jimoh Salahudeen(a.k.a Erukutu); former Chairman, Mopamuro LGA, Hon. Pedro Obadofin; Hon. Salifu Akawu Sule; ex-Chairman, Kotonkarfe LGA, Hon. Shaba Mohammed; and Commodore Foluso Daniels.
Those trying to salvage PDP in Kogi State now are Sen. Smart Adeyemi (Kogi West) and the Minister of Justice and Attorney-General of the Federation, Mr. Mohammed Bello Adoke (SAN), who can no longer afford to remain in the background as a technocrat. The rescue mission of the Minister to Kogi Central Senatorial District for the PDP has made the game difficult for APC in the area. Adoke had offset the SSCE fees of all final year secondary school students in the five local government areas in the district.
Last weekend, we projected Kogi as being too close to call but current realities indicate the state may be leaning towards Buhari for the presidential contest. Sources say there is anger in Kogi West/ Okunland over Jonathan’s unfulfilled promises. Also, critical PDP stakeholders who have refused to defect openly to other parties are said to be giving surreptitious support to the opposition.
In 2011 Jonathan won here by 399, 816 votes to Buhari’s 132, 201 votes. A total of 926, 013 PVCs have been distributed out of the registered voter tally of 1, 350, 883.
Verdict: APC to take Kogi.
BENUE
More than any period in his political career, Governor Gabriel Suswam of Benue State is fighting for his own survival such that he finds it difficult to take the party’s governorship candidate, Terhemen Tarzor along. Suswam is in a cul-de-sac because of inability to pay workers minimum wage; owing of workers six months’ salaries; prolonged strikes in the state which led to closure of schools for eight months and a sharp drop in popularity rating.
The defection of ex-Minister Samuel Ortom and Chief Barnabas Gemade to APC is still haunting the PDP. This development has forced Suswam to embark on aggressive dusk- to- dawn campaign. With a high prospect of winning two out of the three senatorial districts in the state, APC is giving PDP sleepless nights. The game remains 50-50 in the state because of ethnic and religious factors which Suswam may latch on. Otherwise in a free and fair atmosphere, it is APC’s.
Jonathan won by a wide margin here in 2011. He polled 694, 776 votes to Buhari’s 109, 680 votes. So far 1, 607, 800 PVCs have been collected. Total number of registered voters in the state is 2, 015, 452.
Verdict: Battleground
PLATEAU
Unknown to many Nigerians, the race is tighter in Plateau State this time around between PDP and APC because of the manner in which the PDP primaries were rigged in favour of some candidates and the demand for power shift. The people of Southern and Central Plateau have rejected the imposition of another governorship candidate, Sen. Gyang Pwajok from Plateau North on them after eight-year tenure of Governor David Jang. Out of the 17 local governments in the state, Plateau North has six, South (six) and Central is left with five. Motivated by the urge for power shift, the people of Southern and Central Plateau have opted for APC leaving only Plateau North in PDP. The APC governorship candidate, Hon. Simon Lalong is from Southern Plateau and his deputy is the immediate past Vice Chancellor of the University of Jos, Prof. Sonny Tyodem from Plateau Central. On its part, the PDP picked its candidate, Sen. Gyang Pwajok from Plateau North and deputy, U.G. Gomwalk from Kanke in Plateau Central.
More PDP leaders and members have also moved over to APC forcing most political office holders from Plateau State, like the Minister of Water Resources, Mrs. Sarah Ochekpe, to relocate home to salvage the situation. Out of the 16 governorship aspirants in PDP, 13 defected to APC, two remain neutral and Pwajok is on his own. Though the defectors have succeeded in shaking PDP, the ruling party in the state has a narrow edge over APC due to the population advantage of Plateau North. Governor Jang has sustained religious and tribal politicking to checkmate the growing influence of APC in the state.
Buhari suffered a crushing defeat at the hands of Jonathan in this state four years ago. He polled a mere 356, 551 votes compared to the president’s 1, 029, 865 votes.
Verdict: Battleground
NORTH-EAST
The critical factor in the North-East is the insurgency and how the Jonathan administration has handled it. As at February 7 when the six-week postponement was announced, security chiefs told the National Council of State (NCS) that 14 local government areas in the zone were occupied by insurgents.
Over the last four weeks insurgents have been flushed out of most of those locations. President Jonathan spoke midweek of the military recapturing Gwoza where the insurgents had set up the headquarters of their caliphate.
The president and PDP were clearly hoping that the military victory would translate into an electoral boost for them. That hasn’t happened. Instead angry citizens of this zone are saying if it was possible to defeat the Boko Haram fighters in a few weeks, why was the insurgency left to fester for over five years – leading to death of over 15,000 people and making hundreds of thousands Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs).
ADAMAWA
The centre no longer holds in Adamawa PDP to the extent that President Jonathan made an emergency shuttle to the state last Saturday. He got more than he bargained for when stakeholders only promised to vote for him during the presidential poll. Overwhelmed by the challenge at hand, Jonathan paid a nocturnal visit to ex-Vice President Atiku Abubakar for help. Instead, Abubakar shunned his invitation to return to PDP.
The party is locked in a cold war following the failure of its recent reconciliation over the choice of ex-EFCC chairman, Mallam Nuhu Ribadu as the party’s governorship candidate. Ribadu’s olive branch is yet to be accepted by stakeholders who are embittered about the conduct of the party’s primaries in Abuja. The PDP’s headache is how to heal all wounds and defeat the PDM candidate, Dr. Ahmed Mohammed Modibbo and the APC candidate, Sen. Jibrilla Bindo. It is certainly an open race in Adamawa where Buhari’s wife hails from. Adamawa is 50-50 for the presidential election.
Four years ago Jonathan had the edge – winning the state by 508, 314 to 344, 526 votes. PVC collection rate is quite high. Out of the 1, 559, 012 registered voters 1, 381, 571 have picked up their cards.
Verdict: Battleground
TARABA
Despite his bombshell against some ex-militants, a former Minister of Defence, Gen. Theophilus Danjuma, holds the ace for PDP victory in Taraba State. But APC and SDP are giving PDP some headache in the state. When the Acting Governor, Alhaji Abubakar Danladi, kicked off his senatorial campaign in Karim Lamido; he was greeted with chants of “Ba mu yi”. The yeoman’s job of Sen. Aishatu Alhassan (Sai Mama) has improved the prospects of APC. The religious factor is being exploited by PDP to secure its reign in the state. One thing is certain: Buhari will secure the mandatory 25 per cent of the total votes cast.
Taraba was another comfortable win for Jonathan in 2011. He beat Buhari by 451, 354 to 257, 986 votes. This state at over 94% has one of the highest PVC collection rates in the country. Out of the 1, 340, 652 registered voters 1 270, 889 have collected cards.
Verdict: PDP to win
GOMBE
The state is prone to political violence because the ruling PDP is feeling the competitive heat of the opposition. The structure of ex-Governor Danjuma Goje, which produced the governor in 2011, is formidable to the extent that attempts were made to set Goje up on phantom security charges. Last weekend we projected the state as being too close call. However, such is the intensity of Buhari’s popularity across the North that just as he did in 2011, he would win again in Gombe. That year he prevailed against Jonathan by 459, 898 to 290, 347 votes.
So far, a total of 1, 069, 635 out of 1, 120, 023 registered voters have received PVCs – a collection rate of over 95%.
Verdict: APC to win
BAUCHI
The war between Governor Isa Yuguda and the FCT Minister, Bala Mohammed, since the stoning of the presidential convoy in Bauchi has further polarised PDP in the state. The leaders are now working at cross-purposes in a political terrain that is not entirely under the control of PDP. At a point, the governor was accused of producing both the PDP and APC governorship candidates in a deft political move to win either way during the general election. PDP National Chairman, Alhaji Adamu Muazu, has been accused of not working hard enough for the victory of Jonathan. In fact, Mu’azu on Thursday was quick to tell party members that “…I do not see a landslide coming.” The state has always been a political stronghold of Buhari in the last 12 years.
In 2011 he won a landslide victory against Jonathan here by taking 1, 315, 209 votes as against the president’s 258, 404 votes. Out of the state’s 2, 054, 125 registered voters, 1, 778, 380 have picked up cards.
Verdict: APC to win comfortably.
BORNO
Despite insurgency, the massive turn-out at APC presidential campaign rally in Maiduguri has destabilized PDP and Jonathan camp. The PDP’s woes in the state worsened on Wednesday when a Federal High Court in Abuja declared Gambo Lawan as the authentic governorship flag-bearer of the party in Borno State. Justice Ahmed Mohammed ordered the PDP to substitute the name of Alhaji Mohammed Imam with Lawan. The judgment was a setback for ex-Governor Modu Ali Sheriff whose candidate Imam was. A party source said: “We are in disarray; we were devastated by the judgment. Supporters of Imam will rather work for APC than Lawan.”
Though the state is still one of those classified as facing security threats at the last Council of State meeting, it remains APC territory. The campaign so far has revealed that the PDP is depending on federal might to capitalize on the insurgency in the state to manipulate the electoral process. The APC relies on the integrity and achievements of Governor Kashim Shettima, despite all odds, to retain the control of the state.
Buhari won here convincingly in 2011 – taking 909, 763 to Jonathan’s 207, 075 votes. At that election voter turnout was just under 50%. It remains to be seen what the impact of the insurgency would be on turnout. So far, of the 1, 934, 079 registered voters 1, 407, 777 PVCs have been distributed.
Verdict: APC to win.
YOBE
With two out of the three senatorial districts in its kitty, Yobe remains firmly hooked to APC because the state had pitched tent with the opposition since 1999. Ex-Governor Bukar Ibrahim, the political godfather of the state, has been the pivot. With the achievements of Governor Ibrahim Gaidam, retaining the state is easier for APC. The PDP, which initially had challenges over the choice of its governorship candidate, Adamu Maina Waziri, is coming up stronger but is unlikely to displace APC. The decision of Major Hamzat Al-Mustapha, a former CSO to the late Head of State, Gen. Sani Abacha, to lie low has diminished the electoral fortunes of PDP in the state. The permutations that Al-Mustapha will be an electoral asset have failed for PDP.
Again, Buhari won here last time with 337, 537 votes to Jonathan’s 117, 128 votes. Voter turnout was 45%. PVC collection stands at 824, 401 out of 1, 099, 970 on the voters register.
Verdict: APC wins.
FCT
The PDP controls the government machinery in the six area councils and has the biggest war chest for campaign in the territory. The subtle wooing and recognition of traditional rulers has also made the party to penetrate the grassroots. The Vice Presidential Candidate of APC, Prof. Yemi Osinbajo went on campaign tour of the six councils about a week ago. Last weekend we projected a PDP victory. However, that doesn’t take into consideration that a lot of Northerners live in the territory and the regional sentiment towards power-shift could change the direction of the race – making it unpredictable.
Last time, Jonathan won here by 253, 444 to 131, 576 votes. Out of the territory’s 881, 472 registered voters, only 569, 109 have received PVCs. In 2011 voter turnout was a lowly 42.2%.
Verdict: Battleground
SOUTH-EAST
Four years ago Jonathan enjoyed a landslide victory in this zone over Buhari. The latter’s fortunes have improved here given that he’s running on the stronger APC whereas in 2011 CPC was virtually nonexistent. That notwithstanding, the South-East’s embrace of Jonathan and PDP remains fairly strong. Religious politics and familial concerns of the First Family to the zone could also prove important.
ABIA
In Abia State, President Jonathan and PDP are very hopeful of recording a landslide victory. This is because of his unshaken relationship with Governor Theodore Orji, who controls the party machinery. Aside the hope of utilising Orji’s incumbency factor, First Lady Patience Jonathan’s mother hails from the state and this has been used to mobilize support for Jonathan. Also, the PDP has managed to dictate the pace in Abia State politics over the years mainly because of Orji’s style of governance. Until recently, he has succeeded in rendering opposition parties redundant in the state.
Even now that some of opposition parties are gathering steam, most of them like All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA) and the PPA are campaigning for Jonathan.
Our investigation confirms that while governorship and other legislative elections would be a close contest between the ruling PDP and the opposition, Jonathan is likely to win the presidential election here but not with 98 percent as was the case in 2011. In fact, most respondents are optimistic that APC’s candidate, Buhari may get 25 percent votes here unlike 0.31 percent he got in 2011.
That year, Jonathan received a lopsided 1, 175, 984 to Buhari’s microscopic 3, 743 votes. PVC collection is fairly high here. Out of 1, 396, 162 registered voters, 1, 177, 520 have received cards.
Verdict: PDP to win.
ANAMBRA
Anambra State is an All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA)-led state but for the presidency, the state has consistently voted for PDP. In 2011, Jonathan, the PDP flagbearer got 98.96 percent of all the votes cast at the presidential contest.
If not for recent political developments, one would have predicted the same trend, since APGA, as it did in 2011, has no presidential candidate but has pledged to queue behind Jonathan. But unlike what happened in 2011, APC’s Buhari will get reasonable votes from the state.
As Ekwueme, a political father in Anambra State, pointed out, all is no longer at ease with PDP. The elder statesman said “Anambra and Igbo vote can no longer be taken for granted. This is even so as Senator Chris Ngige-led state APC has taken the state by storm thereby popularizing the opposition party there. There is no doubt that APC is very popular in Anambra State and so Buhari seems poised to take advantage of it. Buhari’s major setback in this state and most of the other South-East states is PDP’s continuous campaign that the former Head of State hates Ndigbo and singled out Igbo leaders like Ekwueme, Sam Mbakwe and Jim Nwobodo for imprisonment.
Anambra was another crushing defeat for Buhari in 2011. He polled 4, 223 votes to Jonathan’s 1, 145, 169 votes. A total of 1, 658, 967 PVCs have also been distributed out of the registered voter population of 1, 963, 173.
Verdict: Jonathan
EBONYI
Ebonyi State is a traditional PDP state which gave Jonathan 95.57 percent of its votes in 2011. However, some observers say it has become a major battle ground in this election.
The ripple effects from the crisis in PDP, which culminated in the political coup that dislodged control of the party from Governor Martin Elechi is poised to change the state’s political game.
It seems the only things that may guarantee Jonathan success here are Senator Pius Anyim Pius’ determination to market Jonathan’s ability to retain Elechi’s support for the presidency.
Left to the supporters of the embattled governor, who have already moved over to Labour Party, both Jonathan and his party would have been humbled in this state. Many of them would have gladly released protest votes in favour of Buhari. This would have been most feasible because of the increasing strength of the rival APC in the state, where Dr. Ogbonnaya Onu’s influence has come to play.
In 2011 Buhari received a ludicrous 1, 025 votes as against 480, 592 polled by Jonathan. About 848, 392 PVCs have been collected out the registered voter population of 1, 074, 273.
Verdict: PDP to win.
ENUGU
Following alleged reconciliation of the Senator Ike Ekweremadu-led faction of PDP in Enugu and that of Governor Sullivan Chime, Jonathan’s supporters are optimistic he will easily win in the state, where he got 98.54 percent votes against Buhari’s 0.36 percent in 2011.
While it may not be out of place for PDP to be optimistic in Enugu, insiders in the state’s politics said many interests have been hurt in the pre-election politicking. This includes but not limited to the bitterness of the Senator Ayogu Eze’s camp of the PDP.
Added to this is the dynamic campaign of Okey Ezea-led APC, which is poised to serve as a boost to Buhari’s political fortunes in the state. With its Catholic dominated population, there is also the fear in the PDP camp that Father Mbaka’s recent sermon may sway precious votes to Buhari’s box.
Enugu was another massive win for Jonathan in 2011. He received 802, 144 votes as against a miserable 3, 753 for Buhari. So far 1, 223, 606 people have received PVCs out of 1, 429, 221 registered voters.
Verdict: PDP to win.
IMO
Currently, Imo State is an APC state where Governor Rochas Okorocha’s influence is a major boost for General Buhari.
But The Nation learnt that the PDP’s campaign has been tailored to diminish Buhari’s influence as he was lavishly described as an Igbo hater, who singled out Igbo leaders like Chief Sam Onunaka Mbakwe, for jail. The former governor of old Imo State is so adored in the state that this singular campaign may swing the presidency to Jonathan in the state.
So, while APC seems certain to win the governorship election, the presidency may be too close to call or slightly in favour of Jonathan.
The projections for 2015 are a dramatic turnaround for Buhari who received a mere 7, 591 votes in 2011 compared to a massive 1, 381, 357 votes for Jonathan. In the South-East Imo has one of the highest PVC collection rates at 94%. So far 1, 707, 449 people out of the 1, 803, 030 registered voters have picked up their cards.
Verdict: Battleground
SOUTH-SOUTH
This zone is not only Jonathan’s home ground; it used to be a PDP fortress. That has been breached with APC governments in Rivers and Edo. Jonathan is expected to do well on the back of regional sentiment to back their ‘brother.’ However, a complex interplay of local ethnic politics in Delta, Akwa Ibom and Rivers could throw up some interesting results here.
AKWA IBOM
As far as Governor Godswill Akpabio is concerned, President Jonathan can go to bed regarding the state. He has good reasons to be that optimistic. The state organised a boisterous and well-attended campaign event when the President’s team came calling.
The state has also been a stronghold of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), winning every electoral office since 1999. Having been elevated contentiously to becoming the highest earning state from the federal allocation, Akwa Ibom indigenes will consider voting for Jonathan a favour returned.
But it would be too simplistic to dismiss Buhari’s chances just yet. The APC has been making serious incursions in Akwa Ibom since Obong Umana Umana emerged its governorship candidate. The tricky politics of power-shift and zoning in the state has disrupted all political calculations.
Oron are to be found in five of the state’s 31 local government areas. They are angry with Akpabio for reneging on a promise to zone the governorship to them. There is also the Abak 5 in Ikot Ekpene senatorial district. They are angry with the governor for trying to rob them of a senatorial seat. Their number could prove decisive. Umana is extremely popular in Uyo, the state capital, and other Ibibio-speaking areas. Added to this is the fact that key political players like former Governor Victor Attah and former Minister Don Etiebet have openly broken with PDP by attending Umana’s APC rally and endorsing him.
Factors like South-South solidarity with Jonathan and the incumbent governor’s heavy war chest play in the president’s favour. Last weekend we suggested that PDP will win Akwa Ibom in its historic pattern. But the state’s complex ethnic politics suggest tomorrow’s polls would not be business as usual. We now project the state to be too close to call.
Buhari lost heavily to Jonathan here in 2011 – managing just 5, 348 votes to Jonathan 1, 165, 629 votes. PVC collection is quite high at over 94%. So far 1, 587, 566 out of 1, 680, 759 registered voters have received cards.
Verdict: Battleground
CROSS RIVER
The state should be an easy pie for Jonathan. He is considered a son of the soil and a friend of the state. The proximity of his native Bayelsa state will be an added incentive for voters to pick him in the state.
The PDP has been dominant at all levels in the state since the return of democratic rule. An implosion during the party’s governorship primary that produced Senator Ben Ayade has been well-managed to the amazement of the opposition.
Jonathan, seen as a fellow Christian and South-South brother, will certainly garner massive votes in the state. It is hard to tell how much weight the APC can pull to win votes for Buhari, a Muslim northern. It is even harder to contemplate him winning as much as 25% in the state. Given the ongoing scenario, Jonathan will carry the state without much ado.
Buhari recorded a dismal 4, 002 votes here last time compared to 709, 383 votes for Jonathan. So far 963, 929 out of 1, 175, 623 have received PVCs.
Verdict: PDP to win.
RIVERS
If there is a state that can define this presidential election, it would be no other than Rivers. The two leading candidates have gladiators here, sparing no effort or design to make them win. On the side of APC is Governor Rotimi Amaechi, who is Director General of the Muhammadu Buhari’s campaign.
Amaechi, a dogged fighter, is a political veteran. He knows Rivers politics like the palms of his hands. He’s a two-time governor and an ex-Speaker. It has taken nothing more than sheer willpower and doggedness to fight a President and then defect to the opposition party without as much as scratch. For every weapon fired at him, Amaechi returns the salvo with ten deadlier canisters.
The APC has gained much ground since the governor made it his new abode. The governorship candidate, Dakuku Peterside, has a followership capable of intimidating even the bravest opposition.
The party’s chapter has been giving the PDP a run for its money, insisting that Jonathan cannot win the state. APC’s chairman in Rivers, Davies Ikanya, said Jonathan had committed 25 grievous sins for which the state will never vote for him.
The sins, according to him, include neglect, stalling of some projects envisaged to develop the state, lack of implementation of some projects, violence and corruption among others.
The party has been mobilising against Jonathan and pushing Buhari’s candidature with remarkable results, going by attendance at rallies and campaigns.
But the PDP is no pushover yet in Rivers. Not when its governorship candidate, Nyesom Wike, is still around. Wike has fought Amaechi to a standstill, using federal might and presidential connections. He also attracts crowds.
Besides, First Lady, Dame Patience Jonathan, is also from the state. She has been mobilising for her husband among her people. But many are not happy with her role in the standoff in the state. There may protest with votes against Jonathan at the poll.
Intriguingly, the unscripted defection to the PDP of Deputy Governor Tele Ikuru has thrown the cat amongst the pigeons. It remains to be seen whether this will tip the balance in either direction.
Being a cosmopolitan state with an incumbent governor rooting for Buhari, the APC presidential candidate may carry the state. Jonathan, on his own, will also make serious impact among voters based on ethnic and religious considerations as well as the influence of his wife.
Rivers was a massive votes mine for Jonathan in 2011 as he received a huge 1, 817, 762 votes as against just 13, 182 for Buhari. Of the state’s 2, 537, 590 registered voters, 2, 127, 837 have collected PVCs.
Verdict: Battleground
EDO
That the 2011 presidential election in Edo State was a stroll in the park for President Jonathan is stating the obvious. The president garnered 542, 173 votes as against 17, 795 votes for Buhari.
The president’s victory in 2011 was largely due to the ‘home boy’ factor, coupled with the maximum support offered him by the state governor, Adams Oshiomhole, who mobilised the people in support of Jonathan.
But next Saturday’s election in the state is likely to be a different ball game, as the governor has turned his back against the President. In the last couple of weeks, he has embarked on a vigorous campaign for the APC presidential candidate and other candidates of the party across the nooks and crannies of the state.
While the Edo governor has intensified campaign for Buhari, no one seems to be doing same for the President, as the acclaimed leader of Edo PDP, Chief Anthony Anenih, appears to be spending more time in Abuja thus delegating the task of campaigning for the president to less influential party chieftains.
During his campaign stumps across the state, the governor’s campaign message that the PDP-led federal government has neglected the state in terms of infrastructural projects has resonated well with the people, many of whom have keyed into the change mantra being propagated by the APC.
The Jonathan campaign has been counting on South-South solidarity to prevail in Edo. Bearing this in mind we projected the state last weekend as being too close to call. But given current realities on the ground we now expect Buhari to take Edo.
The PDP had a good outing here last time taking 542, 173 votes as against 17, 795 for CPC’s Buhari. PVC collection rate is modest with 1, 218, 734 have received cards out of the state’s 1, 779, 738 registered voters.
Verdict: APC wins
DELTA
In spite of recording a landslide victory in 2011, President Jonathan and the PDP are not taking anything for granted.
And this is understandable. The ruling party is facing some tough challenges ranging from gradual resurgence of the APC in addition to inter-ethnic suspicion and rivalry in the state.
Indeed, if there is one factor that could impact negatively on the President’s electoral chances in the state, it is the alleged disenchantment of some ethnic groups including Itsekiri and the Urhobos against the Ijaws, the President’s ethnic group.
For the Itsekiris, their grouses are legion. First, is the controversy over the site of the $16 billion Delta Gas City project at Ogidigben in Warri South local government area with the Ijaws claiming ownership of the land said to belong to the Itsekiri.
The groundbreaking of the project suffered several postponements until a few weeks ago when the President visited Warri and reportedly appeased the Itsekiri with his commitment to the commencement of the project.
But not a few however believe that the President’s fence mending was borne not out of genuine love for the Itsekiri, but to win their votes in the presidential election.
There are also others who are not happy with how the state governor, Dr. Emmanuel Uduaghan, was “shabbily treated” by the PDP in the run-up to the party’s senatorial and governorship primaries early this year.
The governor’s desire to have his preferred candidate emerge as the governorship candidate not only failed, he was also compelled to step down for an Ijaw man, Senator James Manager, who is running for another term to represent Delta South in the National Assembly.
Among the Urhobos too, there is a sharp division within the influential Urhobo Progressive Union (UPU), the umbrella body of all Urhobos. Some of its leading lights are reportedly drumming support for Jonathan, while others have allegedly pitched their tent with Buhari.
As the largest ethnic group in Delta State, the Urhobos have the numbers to determine where the pendulum of victory would swing in the election.
In 2011 the contest was one-sided with Jonathan taking 1, 378, 851 votes as against 8, 960 for Buhari. About 1, 921, 627 PVCs have been distributed out of a registered voter base of 2, 275, 264.
Verdict: Slim victory for Jonathan
BAYELSA
Four years ago, the opposition was practically non-existent in Bayelsa, the home state of the President. The result of the 2011 presidential election proved
But the situation is different today, thanks to the defection of notable politicians to the APC, including the immediate former governor of the state, Timipre Sylvia, a former senator, Fred Oboro, former Security Adviser to Sylva, Chief Richard Kpodo, former Youth Leader of PDP in the South-South, Mr. Godwin Sidi and a former Chairman of Southern Ijaw Local Government, Timipa Orunemigha.
Since his parting ways with the President and PDP, Sylvia has slowly but steadily positioned the APC as a viable opposition, a development the Presidency is not comfortable with.
Sources say the former governor, who is also contesting for the Senate on March 28 against media entrepreneur, Ben Bruce, is determined to prove a point that he remains a factor in Bayelsa politics.
But more worrisome for the President’s camp, is the threat by some loyalists of the incumbent governor, Seriake Dickson, not to vote for the President over what they perceive as the overbearing influence of his wife, Dame Patience Jonathan, who has been at loggerheads with the governor.
The homeboy factor in spite of the incursion of the APC, analysts argue, would come handy for the President when the chips are down. Four years ago his kinsmen almost gave him 100% of the available votes. He received 504, 811 as against 691 for Buhari. So far 546, 372 PVCs have been collected. The state has 610, 373 registered voters.
Verdict: Safe bet for Jonathan
SOUTH-WEST
By moving its campaign apparatus to the South-West in the closing days of the contest, Jonathan and PDP obviously agree with those who say this zone would decide the election. The president won convincingly here in 2011. But four years later it is a different ballgame. Jonathan’s robust attempt to break APC’s stranglehold on the zone using monetary inducement, intimidation of the electorate by OPC members, as well as hate documentaries against opposition leaders like Bola Tinubu have backfired.
The major problem for the ruling party is the sense that the South-West has been grossly marginalized by the Jonathan administration as it has no representation in the nation’s top 50 political positions. Conversely, the zone now seems the chance of one of its own becoming Vice President as very distinct possibility.
In Lagos, PDP has tried to turn settlers against indigenes – especially believing that Jonathan’s popularity in the South-East could be transferred to the Igbos in Lagos. But this discounts the presence of other huge settler population like Hausa and other Northerners whose preference is Buhari.
Crucially, Lagos in which four million PVCs were distributed is controlled by APC. The party has proven time and time that in this sprawling megacity it has an unparalleled ability to get out the vote.
OSUN
In Osun, which is firmly under the control of the APC, Jonathan will not have a good showing on election day. All through the electioneering campaign, the President found it difficult to get listening ears. His visits to the state have receive no appreciable attention from the people considering the mammoth crowd that thronged the Osogbo City Sports Stadium to receive Buhari and his team twice when he visited the state in continuation of his presidential campaign.
This will be no surprise in Osun where, in spite of his good showing in the region in 2011, the President still lost to the Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN) candidate by a wide margin. With Governor Rauf Aregbesola still in charge and the PDP declining in status by the day, Buhari is positioned to win massively in the state.
Aregbesola’s convincing victory during last year’s governorship election and the rancour that saw PDP losing two former governors of the state, Isiaka Adeleke and Olagunsoye Oyinlola and former Speaker Olubunmi Etteh, to the APC in quick succession will also work against Jonathan.
Osun was unique in 2011 as neither Jonathan nor Buhari won here. Instead the defunct Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN) candidate, Nuhu Ribadu, prevailed with 299, 711 votes. However, Jonathan still outperformed Buhari taking 188, 409 votes as against the CPC candidate’s 6, 997.
Verdict: APC to win.
EKITI
During the June 21, 2014 governorship election held in Ekiti State, the APC failed to retain the state. The victory of Ayo Fayose was no doubt a surprise to many observers.
However, that governorship election and tomorrow’s presidential poll are two totally different things. The local factors that led to the defeat of former Gov. Kayode Fayemi are not expected to count this time around. Interestingly, in the little time he’s been in the saddle Fayose has managed to alienate many in the state. But being an unrepentant Jonathan supporter the governor will do all that is necessary to ensure PDP carries the day.
APC is not likely to give up without a good fight. The fact that it was in charge of the state for four years barely months back, is also an advantage for Buhari. In addition, the reconciliation of Michael Opeyemi Bamidele, gubernatorial candidate of the LP at the last election with the APC leadership will give PDP more troubles.
Crucially, like in many parts of the South-West there is a strong desire for change at the center. That is a boost for Buhari. This alters our projection last weekend which gave Ekiti to Jonathan. We now project the state as being too close to call.
It was a woeful outing for Buhari as he only managed 2, 689 votes here compared with 135, 009 for Jonathan in 2011. So far, 511, 790 PVCs have been collected out of 732, 021 registered voters.
Verdict: Battleground
ONDO
The political drama that saw the massive defection of major political actors from one political party to the other, which started in 2014 and continued into the new year, climaxed yesterday with Deputy Governor, Alhaji Ali Olanusi crossing from PDP to APC.
The unresolved intra party crisis that bedeviled the PDP in the state following the entrance of Governor Olusegun Mimiko into the party has given the APC a serious edge in the contest for presidential votes.
In quick succession, the Mimiko camp lost the likes of Hon. Gani Daodu representing Akoko North West and East Federal Constituency at the National Assembly, Hon. Gbenga Edema representing Ilaje Constituency II and Hon. Folasade Olasehinde representing Ose Constituency to the APC. More defections were to follow as Mimiko battled old members of his new party for control of party structure.
Although the coming of Mimko into Jonathan’s party initially boosted the chances of the president in the state considering the fact that Ondo was before now a Labour Party (LP) controlled state, his unending face-off with leaders of the party made nonsense of the political gains of his defection.
This argument is premised on the calculation that it was a united PDP, adequately supported by the then ruling Labour Party that gave Jonathan 85.66% of the total votes counted in the state in 2011. With the now ruling PDP torn to shreds and the LP no longer in Mimiko’s kitty, coupled with a fast growing opposition APC in the same state, pundits say Jonathan may not be able to win the oil rich state on March 28.
Jonathan and Buhari will fight hard for votes in Ondo State. Proximity to the President’s native Bayelsa State as well as the large presence of Arogbo-Ijaws in the oil producing area of the state, will give the president a good showing in the southern part of the state.
But with Buhari running on the platform of the APC this time and the general feeling of marginalisation among the Yorubas, his performance in the mainland and other parts of the state will receive a serious boost from what it was in 2011.
The defection of the Deputy Governor is a psychological boost for APC. But Mimiko like Fayose are diehard Jonathan loyalists and would do anything to ensure their candidate prevails. Last weekend we projected a narrow Buhari win but we now believe the state is too close to call.
Ondo gave Jonathan 387, 376 votes in 2011 and a miserly 11, 890 to Buhari. As of today 1, 110, 844 PVCs have been collected. The state has 1, 524, 655 registered voters.
Verdict: Battleground
LAGOS
Although President Jonathan in recent weeks made tremendous efforts at swaying the electorate in Lagos in his favour, not much was achieved by his political maneuvers. If anything, the President and his team gave the people of the state ample opportunities to critically examine why they should vote for any of the two leading candidates.
Before now, Lagosians were disappointed that the President merely coming to Lagos when he launched his campaign, to attack personalities and not to discuss issues. The people, it appeared would have loved the President to tell them about his achievements in office and how he intends to improve on the achievements.
Not even the recent attempt by the PDP to discredit APC’s national leader, Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu, appeared to have succeeded as polls continue to give the state to Gen. Buhari and his party. The near non-existing influence of Afenifere chieftains in the state is also a factor that made nonsense of the President’s effort to play the ethnic card in the state.
Thus, contrary to the posturing of people like Bode George, the most popular position is that Buhari will outshine Jonathan at the polls in Lagos State. APC’s control of political structures in the state is massive – from state to local council levels. This gives it an unparalleled ability to turn out the votes on polling day.
PDP’s attempt to play the ethnic card appealing to certain non-indigenous ethnic groups has been neutralised by APC getting its governors and leaders, such as Kwankwaso, Na’Abba and Buhari to speak directly with other ethnic groups whose numbers are equally large in the state.
Another terrible miscalculation was the pro-Jonathan rally held in Lagos by the Gani Adams-led Oodua Peoples Congress (OPC) and other supporters of the president. The event turned into an orgy of violence with motorists being harassed by gun-totting OPC members and billboards of APC members being vandalised. Public reactions to the outing have been decidedly negative for Jonathan and PDP.
By the time all of the above are placed side by side with the unending crises that have rocked the PDP in the state for years, Buhari is in pole position to prevail on March 28.
In 2011 almost one million votes separated Jonathan and Buhari. The former polled 1, 281, 688 as against the latter’s modest 189, 983 votes. PVC collection has been anaemic – with only 3, 799, 274 distributed out of a registered voter pool of 5.8 million.
Verdict: APC to win.
OGUN
An array of PDP chieftains, including controversial Buruji Kashamu, former party boss, Joju Fadairo and Doyin Okupe, amongst others, are working round the clock to deliver the votes in the state to Jonathan. They are no doubt determined to beat the APC to second place. But Buruji has credibility problem and Okupe is a political liability.
Matching the popularity of the ruling party and the wide acceptance of Governor Ibikunle Amosun is a huge task for Jonathan’s men. Consequently, Buhari’s visit to Abeokuta few days back was a huge success that saw the people of the Gateway State trooping out to see him.
An earlier visit by Jonathan also saw a mammoth crowd but the frenzy that greeted the APC rally gave indication of where the votes may go. Amosun’s track record of achievements, especially in the area of urban renewal, which has seen the massive construction of roads and bridges will be an added advantage for his party.
Also, the seeming ‘siddon look’ attitude of people like former Governor Gbenga Daniel, former Speaker Dimeji Bankole, Jubril Martins Kuye and a host of other aggrieved PDP leaders may work against Jonathan in the state unless something urgent is done.
The indisputable political place of ex-President Olusegun Obasanjo and his unhidden opposition to Jonathan’s aspiration, which peaked with his card-tearing exit from the party few weeks back, will also work in favor of Buhari and his party.
In 2011 Buhari lost Ogun – home of his then running mate, Pastor Tunde Bakare – to Jonathan by 309, 177 to 17, 654 votes. PVC distribution has been problematic in the state in the run-up to this year’s polls. So far only 1, 125, 657 out of 1, 829, 534 registered voters have received cards.
Verdict: APC to win.
OYO
In Oyo state, the tattered state of Jonathan’s party may aid Buhari’s victory. APC also controls the state government. Pundits also say that aside, Oyo is a core Yoruba state where the feeling of marginalisation is deep-rooted.
Although the likes of Jumoke Akinjide, Jonathan’s minister from the state, and Senator Teslim Folarin, gubernatorial candidate, are of the opinion that the people will vote for the Presdient, indications that this may not be so are numerous. The daily defection of party leaders from the PDP, which started with the exit of former Governor Adebayo Alao-Akala remains an issue. Although it is believed that Ladoja and Alao-Akala are working for Jonathan’s candidacy unofficially.
With APC determined to hold on to the state, enjoying the support of all the first class monarchs including Alaafin of Oyo, Soun of Ogbomosho, Olubadan of Ibadan etc, Jonathan may find it difficult getting votes in Oyo.
Jonathan took Oyo comfortably four years ago – raking in 484, 758 votes to outpace Buhari who could only manage 92, 396 votes. PVC collection stands at 1, 639, 967 out of 2, 415, 566 registered voters.
Verdict: APC wins.
CONCLUSION:
General Buhari is projected to prevail in the North West, North East, North Central and South West.
President Jonathan would win in the South-South and South East.
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