For many watchers, 2016 should be fashioned towards the consolidation of democratic gains attained after the landmark political events of 2015.
For a country that staggered towards implosion as a result of general elections, analysts posit that political actors have a huge responsibility to ensure that the processes and efforts made are not eroded.
Still, while the year would start-off a subtle intra and inter party politicking for the 2019 general election, it has been earmarked to herald the concrete assessment of President Muhammadu Buhari’s administration.
Election in Bayelsa
The supplementary governorship election in Bayelsa State on January 9, ranks as one of the major political events that would shape the electoral process in the coming year.
The election which will hold in Southern Ijaw, was just like the governorship poll in Kogi State last year, a spillover from the first ballot of December 5, last year.
Incidence of violence and ballot box snatching had marred the polls in Southern Ijaw. While the incumbent governor of the state and candidate of the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) Seriake Dickson led with over 30,000 votes before the election was declared inconclusive, the All Progressives Congress (APC) candidate, Timipre Sylva, has asked INEC to declare him winner on grounds that he got highest number of votes.
However, allegations of military partisanship also rocked the polls, raising questions over what extent the military should be involved in the conduct of election vis-a-vis the volatile nature of the state or locality where elections would be held.
What’s more, the outcome of the polls would beam more spotlight on the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) which has already been criticized for being unable to conclude elections on first ballot.
Elections in Edo and Ondo
As INEC grapples with the vagaries of Bayelsa election, it will also have to conduct two other governorship elections next year. There will be elections in Edo and Ondo States.
While APC is the governing party in Edo State under the governorship of Adams Oshiomole, Dr Olusegun Mimiko of the PDP governs Ondo State.
Both elections, for many analysts would be keenly contested because the measure to which the APC wants to take Ondo State is the same measure PDP wants to take Edo State. This is because both states belong to regions that both parties claim they dominate.
While APC lay claim to its owns the South West region which Ondo State is a part of the PDP believes the South South region, which Edo State is a part of, is predominantly their base.
Court cases in Taraba, Akwa Ibom, Rivers,
The PDP almost cried itself hoarse last year as its meager electoral fortunes at the last states were upturned by the courts. From Rivers to Akwa Ibom and Taraba States, the governorship elections and some federal legislative offices have been reversed by either the tribunal or appeal court.
While, in the case of federal legislative offices the ruling of the Appeal Court sealed their fate, the governors (excluding Taraba which is still pending at the appellate court) have indicated interest to reclaim theirs mandate at the Supreme Court.
The outcome of the court rulings would be pivotal to PDP’s survival as a party.
...Mark and other legislative polls
As the wind of rerun elections blows in the National Assembly, many were taken aback when it also blew away the victory of former Senate President, Sen. David Mark, a colossus of the PDP. His APC opponent, Daniel Onjeh, who by every standard was no match for Sen. Mark had braved the odds, almost establishing himself as a giant slayer.
Although Mark is not new to such electoral rigmarole in securing his senatorial seat, he would have to deal with a different political clime in his state this time around. For the first time in 16 years, he would have to go through an election with his party as the opposition in his state.
Although he has been very quiet in the goings on of the National Assembly, especially the senate, many analyst believe that his ability to serve as rallying point for all PDP (and some APC senators) federal legislators would be missed if he does not make it back.
As for other legislative positions, it will be crucial to see whether or not the number of the PDP members would be reduced in the course of the rerun elections.
Currently, APC has 60 tsenators or and will enjoy simple majority control in the chamber as against 48 senators in the 7th Assembly.
The reverse is the case for PDP, which lost its majority status in the Upper Chamber with 49 senators-elect as against 61 senators in the outgoing 7th assembly.
In the House of Representatives APC has the majority party with over 225 members, while PDP has 125. Other parties have 10 members.
Outcome of Kogi polls and future elections
By and large, the legal cum political intrigues in Kogi State viz-a-viz the recently concluded governorship election is far from over.
Running mate of late Abubakar Audu, Hon. James Faleke had immediately after the supplementary poll gone to the Electoral Tribunal to challenge the decision of his party APC and INEC to field Alhaji Yahaya Bello as replacement for Audu.
Faleke had refused entreaties by his party to retain the running mate position under Bello. Faleke in a bid to drive home is point had formally written to INEC distancing himself as running mate of Bello ahead of the December 5 supplementary.
Meanwhile, Faleke is sitting on a hot seat in the House of Representatives as representative of Ikeji, Lagos State, as the PDP in the state is asking him to vacate the position since he had in the buildup to the Kogi polls, transferred his polling unit to Kogi State where he voted during the guber polls. Now the PDP claims he is occupying the Ikeja seat in error.
But while Faleke awaits his day at the tribunal, the incumbent governor and candidate of PDP, Capt. Idris Wada, believes he should be declared winner. As far as he is concerned, the demise of Audu was disqualified the APC from the polls, as such, the first runner up (which he is) in the election should be declared winner. He also faulted INEC for allowing APC replace Audu for the supplementary election, arguing that votes cannot be transferred.
The governor-elect, Bello, appears unperturbed as he gets set to be sworn-in by January.
For what it is worth however, many legal and political analysts await the outcome of the court rulings on the matter as it would help to solve the constitutional logjam created by the events that arose from Audu’s death in the course of the election.
Outcome of Dasukigate
The ongoing trial in court of the former national security adviser, Col. Sambo Dasuki, and others whom he gave monies to, including PDP chieftains, would be topical, as it has now come to represent the anchor of President Muhammadu Buhari’s fight against corruption.
While the PDP has accused the current administration of selective war against corruption, a major campaign narrative of Buhari was corruption as such how the case pans out would form a major perception index for the administration.
National convention of PDP
Pending a change of date, the PDP would hold its national convention in March. This event which would significant for many reasons as it would redefine the shape of the opposition in the country, regardless of the outcome.
Besides last years national confab, the convention would be the first meeting of party members from the across the country on a massive scale. It would also offer the party an opportunity to elect new National Working Committee (NWC) members.
More critical is the projection in certain quarters that the convention might lead to the burial of the party if it doesn’t handle the interests well. This is against moves by some members of the PDP to form an alliance with members of other opposition parties to create a new party that would take over the lead position of PDP as the main opposition party.
But the fireworks are already going on. As it stands there are suspicions that the current NWC intends to perpetuate itself in office beyond the date.
Other forces, especially aides of former President Goodluck Jonathan, like Dr Doyin Okupe, Ahmed Gulak, who have been opposed to the current NWC, are bracing for a fierce battle for control of the party.
Gulak had secured a court ruling for the sack of the acting chairman of the party, Prince Uche Secondus, on the grounds that he was occupying a position meant for the North-east as current zoned by the party. Secondus is from the South-south. However the party will appeal the ruling.
However, the activities of other forces like the governors forum, the National Assembly caucus would also be crucial to the outcome of convention.
NASS, Bills, Oversights duties
After the turbulence that hit the National Assembly in the start of the season, many Nigerians would expect the lawmakers to carry out their legislative duties efficiently.
For one, Senate President, Bukola Saraki, declared that the ongoing revelations on the former national security advisers, Col. Sambo Dasuki, was a failure of the National Assembly’s oversight function, the Speaker of the House of Representatives, Hon. Yakubu Dogara, declared that the APC cannot afford to disappoint Nigerians.
The activities of the lawmakers would be crucial to checking excesses of the executive by way of oversights and probes. But probes and oversights over the years have only proven to be self serving for the lawmakers as commensurate action are never achieved.
However lawmakers over the years have also lamented that most of their Bills and motions are neither assented to or implemented by the executive.
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